PFSN's 2025 Pro Basketball Finals Betting Guide

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We are down to two teams. After an eventful regular season and a chaotic postseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder are representing the Western Conference and the Indiana Pacers the East in a battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. How did they get here?

Three of the past five NBA champions have had the player who led all players in this series in regular season PPG. That may not seem like much of a trend, but when you consider that the six prior champions did not hold such an edge, it’s a feather in the cap of the Thunder.

Regular Season: Posted a 68-14 record and earned the 1-seed

At some level, it felt inevitable. The Thunder bottomed out five years ago (22-50 in 2021) after a decade-long run of competitive basketball, and have been on the up-and-up ever since. Their win total spiked by 16 from 2022 to 2023, 17 in 2024, and 11 this season on their way to a borderline historically dominant showing.

Not only were they great, they were better than the sharpest people on the planet thought they were.Oklahoma City posted the best cover rate this season (53-25-4, 6.5 games better than the next best team), the best record against the spread since the 2012 Spurs.

When sifting through the gambling data, the most eye-popping metric of all, even more so than the cover rate, was their over percentage. In 56.3% of their games, the Thunder saw the game go over the projected total, the sixth highest in the league.

At face value, that’s not overly impressive, but when you factor in that this team was clearly the best defense in the NBA, you begin to understand why talks of dynasty have surfaced.

It didn’t take long for them to flex their muscles (7-0 start) and a late 11-game win streak that included a 21-point win over these Pacers served as a reminder of just how good this team can be when clicking on all cylinders.

Round 1: Defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 4-0

Any series that starts with a 51-point blowout in a game that may not have been as close as the final score indicated, doesn’t need much of a breakdown. The Grizzlies are a fun, yet flawed team and that profile isn’t even going to get the attention of a team like the 2025 Thunder.

There were moments where Memphis impressed and poked holes in the Oklahoma City juggernaut, but this series served as a confidence booster for a team that certainly didn’t need it. Their improbable 29-point comeback in Game 3 reinforced the idea that, at the peak of their powers, the Thunder are capable of things that few teams in the history of this game are.

Round 2: Defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-3

Oklahoma City ran into a player in Nikola Jokic that came with the potential to overcome their transcendent team greatness. Potential. We saw that in Game 1 as Denver stole homecourt advantage behind a quiet 42-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist gem from their three-time MVP.

Questions about the readiness of this Thunder team were flying around the airwaves.

Was there something to it?

Maybe. They did get tight at moments, but this seven-game series was a bit deceiving – they lost a pair of coin-flip games while overwhelming the four-seed for a pair of 30+ point wins. This series was pushed to the limit and Denver certainly made Oklahoma City bleed their own blood, but at the end of the day, they were able to execute a plan and given their talent edge over everyone in the league, that’s going to be enough.

In the series, Jokic averaged “only” 5.9 assists, a low total by his cartoonish standards, and was coerced into 4.4 turnovers per game. Oklahoma City came into the series with a plan and it resulted in them advancing to the Conference Finals, even if they were pushed to the brink.

Western Conference Finals: Defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1

Remember those concerns about the Thunder not being ready for the moment? That seemed to be case with the ‘Wolves, even after a deep run a season ago. Oklahoma City won three games by 15+ points (winning a single quarter by at least 14 points in each of those contests), showcasing their ability to rip off game changing runs that makes them the favorite to win it all.

We haven’t had a regular season MVP win a title since Steph Curry accomplished the feat in 2015, joining LeBron James as the only players to do it over the past 20 years. It’s goofy trends like that which work against this Thunder squad – everything on the court is trending in their direction for the next three weeks … and, for that matter, the next three seasons.

Each of the past three NBA champions have ranked in the top quarter of the league in 3P%, a distinction the Pacers hold but the Thunder do not.

Regular Season: Posted a 50-32 record and earned the four-seed

The NBA season is long. Some would argue too long, but that’s a discussion for another time. The point here is that it’s not required of you to be at your best from start-to-finish. There’s obviously nothing wrong with that (see Thunder, Oklahoma City), but you’d never know today that this was a 16-18 basketball team on New Year’s Eve after failing to get an 11-point halftime lead home against the Bucks despite holding Damian Lillard to nine points on 14 field goal attempts in 36 minutes.

But they were and here we are.

Indiana posted their first 50-win season since the Paul George led 2014 team, doubling their win total from Rick Carlisle’s first season in the process. Tyrese Haliburton was labeled as the “most overrated player” by his peers, but the third-team All-NBA selection has orchestrated a steady run. During the regular season, his 673 assists ranked fourth in the league, a number that gets even more impressive when you realize that 75 players had more turnovers than Indiana’s conductor.

The Pacers entered the season with the same odds to win a title as the New Orleans Pelicans, the proud owners of the seventh overall pick after a 21-win season.

Round 1: Defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1

Damian Lillard tearing his Achilles early in Game 4 let all of the air out of this series, but let’s not act as if Indiana was playing better at the time of the injury and entered with homecourt for a reason.

If not for an out-of-body Gary Trent Jr. game in the middle of this series (Game 3: 37 points, 9-12 on 3’s with four steals and zero turnovers), this could have been a sweep and may have resulted in more respect coming the way of this team.

If there were any questions after this team won 34 of 48 games to end the regular season they should have been dismissed after this domination. If not …

Round 2: Defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1

The Cavaliers were the beast of the East from start to finish this regular season, but the Pacers weren’t the least bit intimidated by their impressive resume. Sure, they again ran into good health luck (Darius Garland wasn’t right and Evan Mobley missed a game), but this team took full advantage and that’ all you can ask for this time of year.

Indiana was led in scoring by a different player in all five games, a perfect snapshot of what has made this team so uniquely special in this era of star power. And it wasn’t just the scoring that was spread around – Andrew Nembhard had a 13-assist Game 2 and Aaron Nesmith a 13-rebound Game 5. This versatile team won three games by single digits but don’t let that fool you – they controlled this series from start to finish thanks to potency on the offensive end (series: 50.4% FG and 42.1% 3’s).

Eastern Conference Finals: Defeated the New York Knicks 4-2

The Pacers advanced to this point in six games despite winning just one more quarter in the series than the Knicks did – they simply made more plays at the right times and had higher highs than New York.

That’s not to undershoot what Indiana did – they were the better team and very much deserved to win the East due to their consistent play this postseason. We saw the “is Tyrese Haliburton a superstar” debate hit a fever pitch and while there are still people who need to be convinced, the 25-year-old is happy to be called whatever you’d like … all you have to do is include “representing the Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers” before you introduce his name and he’s happy.

This series featured multiple wild comebacks and scoring binges. The ceiling of the Pacers was on display at portions of every game and they are going to need to build on that as they faith Goliath in the NBA Finals.

They are labeled an underdog once again. Many are picking against them and that’s just fine – but if you’re completely dismissing them, then you haven’t been paying attention over the past five months.

Surgical Guard Assassin.

That’s technically not what SGA stands for, but you could convince me that it should – he cleared 30 points in four of five games during the Western Conference Finals, averaged over 10 free throw attempts per game, and even an assist-to-turnover rate of at least 4.0 in the majority of those games.

The MVP appears to be on a mission and the books are having a hard time keeping up. His point total over/under closed at 33.5 for Game 5, a game in which the Thunder were heavy favorites and thus at some risk of pulling him early. Didn’t matter – they won by 30 and he got there with 34 points while attempting just four freebies.

He’s making the right play at every turn, averaging 41.6 produced strong scoring chances (FGA + FTA + assists) per game against Minnesota, well above the 37.0 average that earned him hardware this regular season. It would appear that betting overs on SGA is the only move left to make, as being on the other side makes for an excruciating 48 minutes, but I’m going to continue to take swings at his unders on 3PM.

Have I lost three straight in going so? I have, but I stick by the process – distance shooting is the weakest part of his elite game and he’s averaged under 4.5 attempts in consecutive series. Indiana comes preloaded with elite guard and while they weren’t able to shut down Jalen Brunson last round, they crowded him with regularity.

Now, he was still able to get up his fair share of shots from distance, but how much of that was the result of a lack of faith in his teammates? The Knicks lacked consistency from their secondary options whereas the Thunder have a variety of options that are playing their ways into massive contracts.

A fade of Gilgeous-Alexander from the three-point line is a reasonably correlated option to his assist total – if he’s attacking off the bounce, his shooters are flaring out and he’s proven time-and-time again that he’ll make the right play in those situations. As Indiana looks to push the pace, I expect Oklahoma City, on occasion, to do the same and those situations have SGA steering the ship, either getting to the bucket himself or spotting a teammate for a warmup level difficult corner 3.

We’ve seen Gilgeous-Alexander’s FG% in Game 1’s this postseason (39.4%) be well below his average otherwise (48.9%), so if you’re brave enough to go “under” his point total, the first game is the spot for you.

To say it’s been a rollercoaster of late for Williams backers would be an understatement. The explosive Robin to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Batman averaged 22.2 points against the Timberwolves, but he was never really all that close to that number on a game-to-game basis (three games under 20 points and two over 25).

His stability as a distributor, however, is a sign that he’s developing in impressive fashion. Despite being capable of generating a good shot for himself against most defenders in the league, something I think that will be the case in this series as well, Williams has handed out at least four assists in 15 of 16 games this postseason (the lone exception being the 42-point loss in which the starters were yanked early) and with just 10 turnovers across 168 minutes last round, he’s doing it in an efficient manner.

His success in that regard has helped offset some sporadic shooting (under 30% from 3 in each of the first two rounds before shooting 46.2% against Minnesota). He took a shot on half of his drives last round, up from his 39.6% rate against the Nuggets, something that tells me that he is becoming more comfortable with being a focal point of this offense, not a reactionary piece to the brilliance of his MVP teammate.

I’m staying away from his 3PM props for this entire series, but outside of that, I’ll be taking a bullish approach on possibly the second most gifted scoring option in this series.

Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should. Holmgren is a threat from the perimeter, but if he is settling for those shots in bulk, it’s leaving meat on the bone for this offense as a whole – it bails out the defense and eliminates those little dump off passes for dunks that seem to always be there when the opposition tries to stop the inevitable Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from getting to his spot.

Young players tend to settle more than they should, but we might be in the midst of seeing Holmgren come of age. In Round 1, over half of his shots were triples, but that rate shrunk to 34.2% in Round 2 and to 31.7% in Round 3.

His versatility is his biggest calling card, not his height. Holmgren had multiple dimes or triples in every game against the Timberwolves and if he can keep defenses honest like that, then OKC truly has a Big Three that could run the NBA in a dynastic way.

Projecting Holmgren’s role is a bit of a parlay, as it depends on how much food Isaiah Hartenstein takes off his plate. Personally, I believe that Holmgren is the far better player in general, but also or this specific matchup where his combination of rim protection, closeout range, and ability to stretch a pretty stingy Pacers defense are all going to be required for the Thunder to raise the Larry O’Brien.

To that end, I want to see how Oklahoma City manages their front court rotation, but I’m cautiously optimistic that it leans in Holmgren’s favor. That has me leaning on the positive side of his rebound totals and the negative sides of his 3PM projections – if OKC goes to a lineup where he is the only true big man on a consistent basis, it could be a stretch for him to get to 4-4.5 triple tries a game and if that’s the case, I’ll be betting “under 1.5 3PM” with regularity.

At times during the first two rounds, Hartenstein was used as an offensive hub. Not that the offense was going to run through him for extended periods of time, but the occasion action off of him to buy his high usage teammates some rest was very much weaponized early on.

And then it disappeared almost completely against Minnesota (four assists in five games with under 20 minutes played in each of the final three contests).

The idea of a player with Hartenstein’s wherewithal with the ball in his hands is appealing in this series against a get-up-and-go Pacers team, but is he at rik of being deprioritizied like he was in the Conference Finals? Indiana didn’t blink when New York tried to scare them off of their normal lineup by inserting Mitchell Robinson into the starting lineup, the thought being that it would force Rick Carlisle’s hand into an adjustment and thus disrupt their offensive flow.

Robinson isn’t Hartenstein, but the point remains. The Pacers appear to have locked in the five players they are going to ride-and-die with when it comes to starting games and if that’s the case, who does Hartenstein guard? Minnesota played Rudy Gobert for 26 minutes a night last round and even then, we saw Hartenstein’s impact wain with time – what happens when the Pacers put five shooters on the floor, something they essentially do whenever T.J. McConnell isn’t on the floor?

I want to believe in Hartenstein because I think he has a unique skill set that can be weaponized at times, but this doesn’t project as the series in which he gets used in a meaningful way. A two-big lineup against the Pacers is playing with fire when it comes to their ability to force tempo and I can’t imagine a world in which the Thunder are willing to trim Chet Holmgren’s minutes (18.0 points on 56.7% shooting against the Timberwolves).

This is a wait and see situation in terms of prop betting, but I’m inclined to think Hartenstein unders are going to be my position before his overs.

It’s become pretty clear that Dort’s value is on the other side of the ball and the depth of this roster allows for one specialist type. His drives per gam this postseason are down 53.6%, trimming an already underwhelming number to one that is bordering on microscopic.

The stingy defender converted on 42.8% of his wide open triples during the regular season (71 games played) and is currently sitting at 38% in his 16 playoff games. The rainbow 3’s will have their moments, but he is a capable rebounder and that keeps his points-plus-rebounds bets in play. His tenacity on one end of the court is going to fuel his playing time (30.6 minutes per game against the Timberwolves) and given how the Pacers push tempo, it’s not hard to imagine Dort jogging into plenty of open triples as a part of the secondary break.

Something I will be watching in that regard is Oklahoma City’s strategy when it comes to the offensive glass. This postseason, 36.1% of Dort’s boards have come on the offensive end and if Mark Daigneault values defenders back to stop the break over putback chances, there could be a real path to “under” rebound bets – he’s capable, but if the top priority is finding Pascal Siakam post offensive possession and finding spots to launch triples, there just may not be the opportunity to hit four rebounds, his regular season average.

If beauty can be in the eye of the beholder, why can’t domination?

“Domination” in this league has looked a certain way for a long time, but Nikola Jokic has challenged that mold in recent years and Haliburton has put his own spin on it during these playoffs. For me, “domination” simply means the controlling of a game. The ability to put your team in the best spot to win every single night. It doesn’t have to look a certain way on a stat sheet – it’s something you know when you see it.

Haliburton has been that over the past two months.

He’s entered every series playing to his natural style and pivoted a needed. He’s one of the best ball handlers in the game today and his assist-to-turnover rates make even greats like Chris Paul blush, but he’s also proven capable, willing, determined to insert himself as a scoring asset when called upon. The last second daggers are what stand out, but the fact that his highest scoring performance in all three series have come in Game 4 or later is symbolic of an overall mindset – he will do what is asked of him and he will do it at an ultra-high level.

The three-point shooting can be spotty at times, but he enters this season with five straight multi-steal efforts and considering how rarely he gives the ball away, he’s essentially a possession gainer, something superstars often are in one way or another for their teams.

All of that said, his numbers in the betting markets are reflecting his production patterns and with the Thunder on deck, I’m finding myself transitioning from a fanboy to a fadeboy of Indiana’s point guard.

Against the Knicks, 48.5% of Haliburton’s shot attempts were 3’s and given the stress the Thunder put on Anthony Edwards last round that forced him into 28.2% shooting from deep (remove an outlier Game 3 and that rate dips to 19.4%), his scoring props, especially early in the series, will be something I’m tracking with a watchful eye, waiting for the right time to get exposure to the under. He opened with a 19-point projection and we are getting plus-money to go under 2.5 3PM in Game 1 (more on that later), but the books are respecting his recent production and that’s a logical move.

During the regular season, Haliburton scored just 22 points across 64 minutes against Oklahoma City. Of course, that’s a tiny sample and this version of him is different, but it is worth noting that the Thunder focused on limiting his looks, even before this legacy-altering run.

That said, his 2.5-turnover projection is enticing given that he’s a low turnover player as it is and that Indiana will have extended time to prepare for this first game. I don’t suspect we get an ultra aggression version of Haliburton out of the gates and if OKC can slow down their transition, I’m not sure how many times he realistically puts the ball in harms way on Thursday night.

The MVP of the West Finals, Siakam brings with him Finals experience and elite form. The former Raptor scored 100 points across three even-numbered games against the Knicks and while the even/odd splits aren’t predictive, it’s good to see that he is capable of producing in star like fashion on a reasonably consistent basis.

The sledding, of course, will be as hard as its been all season in this series, but 5+ freebies in seven straight games is a strong signal of aggression, something that is going to have to be on full display for every second against Oklahoma City.

The problem?

We didn’t see that in the small sample size during the regular season. In his 58 minutes against OKC, 48% of his field goal attempts came from distance (rate against the rest of the NBA: 27%) and while he is a capable marksman (50% against the Knicks), his top trait is getting down hill and scoring from inside of 20 feet.

Keep reading and you’ll notice the trends about the Thunder excelling at forcing opponents to play to their weak spots – I think the three-point volume of Siakam will be viewed as an allowable result for OKC and that opens up the angle of betting on his 3PM props (opener: over 1.5 pays +145 on DraftKings).

The duality of Turner is something we need to track as this series goes as it directly impacts his statistical output. In Round 2 against the Cavaliers, 27.1% of his front court touches came in the paint, a significant rise from his 18% rate during the regular season. That not only allowed him to post a 13.5% rebound rate, but played a big part in him shooting 56.3% from deep for that series as Cleveland was accustomed to defending him as an interior threat.

In the conference finals, his paint touch rate hovered around 16% for the entirety of the series, resulting in a cratering of his rebound rate and a lower average quality of three-point attempt, hence the underwhelming counting numbers.

How he will be used in this series might be based less on what the Pacers want and more on how the Thunder opt to attack. If they continually go with a two big lineup ala Cleveland, we could see Turner rushing past his projected numbers, but if not, 15-point 5-rebound games are about as good as its going to get.

This is a situation to monitor as news conferences are had and as Game 1 plays out. If I’m speculating with the knowledge that we have now, I’d guess that Oklahoma City goes with a smaller plan initially, identifying Indiana’s tempo as the primary thing they need to take away. If that’s the case, Turner could be set to disappoint again, but this is very much a fluid situation that we will be able to leverage when we get some data points to work with.

It’s easy to forget that Nesmith was a first round pick just five years ago, selected just two spots behind Tyrese Haliburton and seven spots before the 76ers scooped Tyrese Maxey. He’s established himself as one of the premier three-and-D players in the league and the spike counting number games happen just often enough to keep him on the radar of the opposition as a legitimate threat.

Game 1 at Knicks: 30 points (eight triples, five in the final 3:14 of regulation) Games 1-2 at Cavaliers, totals: 40 points (nine triples) with 12 rebounds Game 5 vs. Bucks: 19 points (three triples) with 12 rebounds and 0 turnovers

In a perfect world, he develops into THE third option for this offense. That could well happen (under contract for another two seasons) for the 25-year-old, but counting on him nightly is still a bit risky, especially against a defense as stout as what Oklahoma City brings to the table.

That said, the Thunder aren’t as concerned with winning the math battle as most other successful franchises these days and that leaves the door open for Nesmith in the 3PM prop markets. There’s no other area of interest for me when it comes to him – the rebound and assist totals have a tight range of projectable outcomes and the PRA/points markets are just a way to bet on his three-point shooting with an increase in variance.

I think there’s a real chance he averages more minutes per game in this series than the three prior and that volume of playing time has me keeping tabs on him.

It’s been a postseason full of match up based production for Nembhard – he’s a talented player, but not one that can overcome a poor matchup. Not yet anyway. The 25-year-old was a consistent source of scoring in the first round against Milwaukee (15+ points in four of five games) and he was able to sustain the threat of bucket getting alongside an increase in ball handling responsibilities in Round 2 against Cleveland (9.8 assists-plus-turnovers per game, up from 5.6 against the Cavaliers).

But then came the Knicks. I don’t want to say Patrick Mahomes is to Josh Allen what Jalen Brunson is to Nembhard because there is a team success component at play, but the head-to-head domination when it matters is in that neighborhood. Nembhard’s defensive prowess was nullified and that impacted how effective/confident he was on the other side of the floor as his assist-to-turnover ratio ranked and his 2P% made him a one-trick pony in terms of scoring. On the bright side, the NBA bans a player from getting traded this time of year, so Brunson will not be suiting for the Thunder in this series. The spike scoring of Bennedict Mathurin reduced Nembhard’s role in the second half of the New York series and introduces some risk into this profile, but I do think Nembhard still gets the first chance to make an impression next to Tyrese Haliburton in this series and that could leave some of his props in the early going a touch low.

The Pacers are likely to weigh down Haliburton with as much usage as he can handle in this series and that makes a player like Nembhard, one who doesn’t need the ball in his hands as often, interesting. That said, this profiles as a very fluid situation – if it becomes clear that the top priority of the Thunder is to stop Haliburton from touching the paint, the need for an aggressive secondary option like Mathurin increases and that is how a repeat of the Conference Finals stat lines happens.

If you like Haliburton to have some initial success in this series, Nembhard overs are live. If you’re heavily invested in the Thunder to control this series from start to finish, he’s either an avoid or an outright fade.