PGA Tour heads to Maryland; An NFL Win Total to Bet Today!

Happy Wednesday everyone! The NFL heads to preseason week 2, MLB continues it’s pennant races and golf plays it’s 2nd to last event of the year, this time in Maryland.

As we great up for football season to start, make sure to check out the Betting with Bearman podcasts, on the Bleav podcast network, which will be breaking down all 8 divisions before the season starts. This week we previewed the AFC South and will be releasing the AFC East betting preview on Thursday, followed by the NFC West. And next week, we will do the rest!

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Tampa Bay Rays (-137, Drew Rasmussen) at Athletics (+113, J.T. Ginn)

At face value, there’s not much to like here. Neither team is going to the playoffs, both starting pitchers, over the past 12 months, have spent time in the bullpen, and it’s the last game on the slate.

If your betting diet is based on entertainment potential, it’s possible you didn’t even notice that this game was on the schedule. But grinding edges at Betting with Bearman sees nothing but dollar signs and that is what landed us here.

Since the All-Star Break, four offenses have distanced themselves from the pack when it comes to embarrassingly low upside. The four units lagging behind the rest of the league in both chase rate and zone contact rate since the middle of July are the Rockies, the Twins, and both of these teams.

Well, that’s a good place to start for those of us that predominantly bet unders.

That’s also ultra-daming for two offenses that have two breakout stars from this season (Junior Caminero for the Rays and Nick Kurtz for A’s) and speaks to the lack of depth we are dealing with.

The game total (under 9.5 runs, -115) is reflective of those two big bats, the positive hitting environment, and the lack of name recognition for the starting pitchers. I just dispelled the first as a concern and while the second isn’t something I can talk you off of, some positive pitching notes presented themselves and that was enough to see me.

Both Rasmussen and Ginn have sub-4.00 xERA. The Tampa Bay righty hasn’t allowed a run or a walk in his 11.1 August innings (his last HR allowed came on July 6) while the host has a 53.8% ground ball rate that sucks some of the run-scoring potential out of this minor league park.

Even though there was no newsletter on Tuesday, we bet the under last night and were rewarded, so getting right back on the saddle today. This is a bet and go to sleep game and hope you see more money in your account when your kid or dog wakes you up at 3a.