Happy Monday Betting family! The 2025 NFL regular season has come to a close, leaving 14 teams to compete for the Super Bowl championship. We also are down to 4 teams left for the College Football national title.
We also have 8 NBA games and 5 NHL games to choose from on this first Monday of the New Year.
Make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have FOX Sports Betting Analyst, and former ESPN GameDay researcher Chris “The Bear” Fallica on the podcast to break down the CFP Semifinal. Last week, we had The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer on to preview Week 17 action.
As with all Mondays, today’s newsletter is free all the way through. Upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks each week. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Time to get some wins.
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NBA on the Court
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets (-8.5, 222.5)
We are nearly a week into the new year and you have to go back before Thanksgiving to find the last time the Rockets lost a home game.
Enter a hot Suns team that has won six of seven, including topping the best team in the sport last night in a game that they trailed by 18 in the second quarter.
Phoenix was great in the second half yesterday, I can’t take that away from them, but they were +20 on the glass and that’s unlikely to repeat against the best rebounding team in the league.
Houston played on Christmas and have taken the court just four times since, while this will be the seventh game for the Suns over that same stretch. Phoenix has lost the first quarter in each of their past three back-end of back-to-backs and the Rockets happen to own the second best point differential over the first 12 minutes this season (+4.0).
It’s not difficult to see the home team jumping out. Amen Thompson has reached his average of 18 points in six of his past seven games (60.9% FG) and the closer that is Kevin Durnat has handed out 5+ assists in five straight while scoring 30+ points in three of his past four.
Alperen Sengun (ankle) was hurt over the weekend and won’t play tonight, but even without the versatile big, this Houston team has the ability to score in a variety of ways. On Saturday against the Mavs, Durant and Thompson combined to take 44 shots to make up for Sengun’s (one minute) departure. The injury obviously isn’t ideal, but if it means we are looking at usage condensing around a top-5 athlete in the sport and maybe the best closer of a generation, I think this team will be just fine.
Houston led wire-to-wire in the first meeting with Phoenix this season and has won three of the eight head-to-head quarters this season by 13+ points. Sengun does a lot of things well, but Clint Capela assuming the bulk of his minutes gives this team a true rim protector that can allow their length to challenge Phoenix’s three-point barrage (top-10 in percentage of points that come from downtown).
The only time the Suns have lost recently was of the wire-to-wire variety in a game where they struggled to slow an opposing star (34 points for Donovan Mitchell on 18 shots in 30 minutes) and couldn’t convert with regularity inside of the three-point line (39.1% on 2’s).
Rockets 1st quarter -2.5
Bonus play: Rockets wire-to-wire win (must least at conclusion of every quarter) +130 at DK.
Don’t go away! We have weekend recap, NHL play of the night and an early look at Wild Card Weekend below!
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NHL on the Ice
Courtesy of Kevin Rogers
Utah Mammoth (-108) at New York Rangers (-112), Total 5.5
Utah owns a 5-2-4 record in the first period after a game it trailed through 20 minutes. The Mammoth continue their road trip tonight against the Rangers, looking to bounce back from a 4-1 defeat at New Jersey.
The Rangers have stumbled to a 2-9-7 mark in the first period at home, as they return to Madison Square Garden off a six-game road trip. New York looks to lead through the first period in consecutive games since late November.
The Mammoth gave up two goals in the first period to the Devils on Saturday. Utah is 2-0-3 in the opening period after allowing at least two goals in the first 20 minutes.
Let's back the Mammoth in the first period against the Rangers.
Mammoth 1st period (-110)
NFL Wild Card Weekend Early Look
In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.
A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.
Below, we will take a peek at all 6 games and I will note if there is something I am jumping on right now. We will have official card later in the week.
RECORD THROUGH WEEK 18
NFL Main Side/Total Plays: 35-40-2 (46.8%)
- Sides: 20-18-2
- Totals: 15-22
Main Props (including primetime games): 92-60 (60.5%)
Total: 127-100-2 (55.9%)
What we like/monitoring today
L.A. Rams (-10.5, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers - Saturday, 4:30p
Rematch of Week 13 matchup in which the Panthers upset the Rams, ending their six-game winning streak.
To be honest, this was the only game this season I thought the Rams got outplayed in. Not sure if they took the Panthers too lightly, but of the 4 losses they have this season, this was the only one where I didn’t feel like they should’ve won.
That said, the Rams did outgain Carolina and had three costly TOs and still led halfway through the 4th.
Carolina gained 164 yards on the ground, not something I expect the Rams to give up again.
While I am not ready to lay the 10.5 on the road just yet, I do firmly believe the Rams will win this game on the road. I will also be looking at Stafford TD props once they post as he has now thrown for 2+ TDs in 11 straight games, with 3+ in 7 of them.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 46.5) - Saturday, 8p
The teams split the two meetings this season, with GB holding on to win at home in Week 14 and the Bears pulling off a miracle rally in Week 16 to take control of the NFC North.
I personally don’t like the way the Packers have been playing, which isn’t a surprise considering they ended with a 4-game losing streak. But let’s take Week 18 out of the equation as that game didn’t matter.
Allowed three second-half TDs to the Broncos
Coughed up last lead to Chicago with division on the line
Dominated by a Ravens team missing Lamar Jackson, having no answers for Derrick Henry
A once solid rush defense has allowed 115+ yards rushing in five of the last six and in 8 of last 10 games.
The Bears didn’t look great vs. the Lions in Week 18, but showed tremendous fight in the Week 17 showdown with San Fran.
I think the Bears 3rd-ranked rush offense will be able to control the game vs. the Packers as they did vs. the Packers in both meetings and vs. the Eagles before that.
Leaning Bears -1.5
Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 51.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday
I feel the wrong team is favored here. Josh Allen’s year with no Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, yada, yada, yada. Have you watched the Bills lately?
Snuck by Bengals and Browns, dominated for 3 quarters at home vs. Philly. I just don’t think this Bills team is playing like the Bills teams of the past that had a legit shot at the Super Bowl. Now they have to play 3 road games to get there.
The Bills strength this season has been their rushing (159.6 yards per game). Guess who has the best rush defense in the league? Jacksonville, at 85.6 rush yards per game, not allowing any player over 75 yards rushing.
Trevor Lawrence has been on a different planet the last 7 weeks, throwing for 15 TD with 1 INT and rushing for 4 more.
Most of the Jags will be new to the playoffs, but head coach Liam Coen in not, having been with the Bucs the last few years.
Jags are peaking at the right time and Buffalo is doing the opposite. If the Jags contain the Bills run game and force Allen to make stuff happen, there will be a few TOs that lead to a Jags win.
Jags ML (+102) - I bet this already and it will be on the card Friday
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 45.5) - Sunday
Tough game to handicap with all the injuries to San Francisco and not totally believing in the Eagles just yet.
Can Philly get right and go back-to-back? Of course, but they’ve also had 17 game to show us and have an offense that is 24th in yards, 18th in rushing, 23rd in passing and 19th in scoring.
The defense has been great of late, allowing 16.5 PPG game over the last 11 games (that’s what the Texans are allowing for the season)
To me, this all comes down to the Eagles offense and if they can sustain drives vs. the Niners questionable defense. If they can, they will win this one. If not, it’ll be another low scoring, down to the wire Eagles game.
Lean under 45.5, but trying to trust SF defense.
Los Angeles Chargers at NE Patriots (-3.5, 46.5) - Sunday
Who do you trust? A second-year QB making his playoff debut? Or a veteran QB who has not won a playoff game yet and has an Offensive Line that is making him run for his life?
Have the Patriots beaten anyone? No, but they can only play who is on the schedule. Are they good enough to win the whole thing? Yes. But are they a year ahead? Yet to be decided.
Regardless of who they have played, the Pats have the 2nd best offense in yards per play, NFL’s leading passing offense in yards per pass and 2nd-best scoring offense.
The Chargers have one of the better defenses in the league and have shut down the Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs (with Mahomes) in recent weeks.
My early lean is to take the points and force the Patriots to not only beat a solid team, but do it by the point spread.
Houston Texans (-3.5, 39.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers - Monday night
This Houston team is good enough to win it all and it starts Monday night in Pittsburgh. The defense leads the league in yards and second to Seattle in scoring after allowing 30 in a meaningless Week 18 game. Taking that result out, the Texans haven’t allowed more than 21 points since Week 10 to the Jags.
The offense has been the question for Houston, but they been much improved of late, gaining 350+ yards in four of the last six games with postseason on the line. They’ve also scored 20+ in each of the last seven games after not doing so in four of the first six games.
You can have a priest in the end zone all you want, but the Steelers are just not a very good football team. The offense is 22nd or worse in every category, the defense is 26th in yards and 29th in passing and they have the 6th-worst yardage differential in the league, only ahead of five teams that all won less than 6 games.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Steelers have beaten one team with a winning record: the 9-8 Lions.
Hoping this comes down to Texans -3, but will pay the juice if I have to. Also looking a Steelers team total under when they post.
College Football Playoff Semifinals
We will have Chris “The Bear” Fallica on Betting with Bearman podcast on Tuesday to preview both matchups. My initial thoughts below.
10 Miami (-3.5, 52.5) at 6 Ole Miss - Thursday Fiesta Bowl
Canes playing as well as anyone right now, but Ole Miss is as well.
The difference is the Canes defense, which has shutdown almost everyone they faced, including very good Ohio State and Texas A&M offenses.
Early lean is Miami -3.5, but if Ole Miss can score, they can win this.
5 Oregon at 1 Indiana (-4, 46.5) - Friday Peach Bowl
If I wasn’t convinced before the Rose Bowl, I am now. This is a very, very good Indiana team.
People forget that Oregon was the No. 1 team in the country last year heading into the CFP and got a bad draw under the old rules and had to face Ohio State in the quarters. This team can absolutely win it all, but Indiana is better.
Early lean is Indiana -4 and to win it all.
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
We stated in the newsletter on Friday that Week 18 is our least favorite week to bet, not knowing who is really playing, who is really trying and how long teams would stick with their players with not much on the line. We bet more on the two Saturday games that mattered and went light on Sunday.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).
NFL
Hit our Saturday Panthers play, taking the points and covering late. Lost both totals on Sunday, not expecting a shootout with the Houston defense and having control of the Commanders/Eagles under (17-10 entering 4th) until the two teams did exactly what they did in Week 16 - score multiple TDs in a meaningless 4th quarter… sigh.
We missed both our Saturday 49ers props as they had next to no offense vs. an impressive Seattle defense. We didn’t get there with the Pollard incentive, but did with Keenan Allen. Stafford was a bonus for those that either laid the juice with 2 TD or went with 3+ TDs. He hit both. That’s a 2-3 prop record for Week 18.
NBA/NHL
Missed our Nets ML play but hit our Wild 1st period play.
Betting Tip of the Week
For the NFL, Get in Early
The NFL has the tightest lines of any sport or league, meaning the margin of difference between the lines and power rankings is slim.
The best time to get in on a good number is when they first post on Sunday night. The market is fresh, and it hasn’t been bought into yet. Books spend Sunday evening and even Monday morning adjusting opening numbers to the big bets and sharp action coming in, so get in before they move!
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
Futures portfolio look in
How to use your NFL Wild Card Weekend promos
Playoff line movement and CFP semifinal thoughts
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