Happy Monday Betting family! Hopefully you all woke up early Sunday morning and watched the great Dolphins-Commanders game with me. They say all wins count the same, but woof, that was a bad game.
Anyhow, looking to bounce back from a struggling betting weekend with some Monday Night magic. We aren’t going to have winning weeks all the time. But we will continue pushing.
We have a prop and an SGP off tonight’s game in Las Vegas and picks on the NBA and NHL. We also take an early look at NFL Week 12.
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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Betting Analyst and former ESPN Bet host Doug Kezirian on, where he dug into the CFB and NFL slates.
This week’s guest will be Pat Mayo from The Pat Mayo experience.
NFL Season | ATS | Through 10/19 | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
Favorites | 84-79 | Over | 85-76-2 |
Underdogs | 79-84 | Under | 76-85 -2 |
Home Fav | 54-45 | Home Dogs | 32-32 |
Road Dogs | 45-54 | Road Fav | 32-32 |
Includes International games
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Monday Night Football in Las Vegas
NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 19-22-1
- Sides: 8-11-1
- Totals: 11-11
Main Props (including primetime games): 62-33 (1-0 in Week 11)
Total: 80-53-1
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 50.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This is the second time in three weeks the Cowboys have played on Monday night and we missed badly on our Cowboys -3 pick vs. Arizona two weeks ago. A Dallas team that had scored 40+ points in three home games laid an egg vs. a bad team in the Cardinals. Nothing about that game made much sense as Dallas didn’t even play bad defensively and still lost.
We still lean towards them tonight, but the trust has been lost, especially on the road, where they are 1-4 this season with the lone win being vs. the Jets. If it drops to 3 without the hook, we’d be a lot more interested, but instead, yep, we go to the prop market!
George Pickens over 64.5 receiving yards
Longtime Betting with Bearman readers might remember we started the season with the Cowboys at the Eagles on TNF and lost a Pickens bet (not that I am bitter or anything). Well, that was his lowest output of the season (30 yards) against a really good Eagles defense. He has hit 65+ in 7 of 8 games since, averaging 91.8 yards per game when dropping that first game. Only JSN is averaging that for the season.
He also has a good matchup tonight. The Raiders defense isn’t bad, but where they excel is against the run, 2nd in the league in holding teams to 3.8 yards per rush. That is going to force and already pass-happy Cowboys offense to throw more.
The Raiders play zone on 79.2% of the time, the fifth highest rate in the league and up from 65% last year. Pickens against zone: 58.7 yards per game (7th), 15.1 yards per catch (1st), 5 TDs (T-1st).
So we are going to play Pickens, who has been the 2nd best WR in the game since Week 2 in a good matchup with Las Vegas. Over 64.5 receiving yards.
Plenty of more on this game and NBA and NHL picks below
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SGP for Monday Night
We will use our main play above and since it’s an over, use an alt line over with it and find 3 more plays for tonight for our SGP. DraftKings has 25% SGP boost and FD has 30%.
Pickens 50+ yards (-220)
Ashton Jeanty 60+ rush yards (-162): Cowboys 29th against run this season (143 rush yards per game), Jeanty got 60 against a much better Denver defense last game
Williams ATD: 8 rushing TDs are 4th in NFL; Raiders 29th in league in allowing RB TDs
Tre Tucker 30+ receiving yards (-265): Someone other than Bowers has to catch the ball in this game. Might be the last time taking Tucker. Hit 30+ in 6 of 9 games
+439 boosted to +570
NBA on the Court
LA Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5, 220.5)
I think we get a competitive contest in Philadelphia tonight and in so, we get a heavy reliance on the primary players.
VJ Edgecombe already qualifies as such and that’s where I’m headed.
This season, the Clippers allow an assist on 26.8% of opponent possessions, the eighth highest rate in the league. Edgecombe’s assist-to-pass rate (7.1%) is lagging behind Quentin Grimes and Tyrese Maxey, both of whom have a rate north of 10%.
I find it likely than not that we see some regression on that front, and what better way than in this matchup?
I also tend to favor a pro assist angle when Joel Embiid is inactive and an anti assist angle when the big man plays. Their scoring equity rises with him, but given the isolation sets and spike in free throw rate, the assist rate pie isn’t that big.
I’ll say Edgecombe gets to his season average tonight (over 3.5) and that’s enough to cash this plus-money prop!
Edgecombe over 3.5 assists (+122 at DK)
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors (-8.5, 239.5)
LeMelo Ball’s points/rebounds/assists totals before his injury were 64-37-37-33
He totaled 29 in 27 minutes in his return on Friday at Milwaukee
Raptors are 12th in pace this season and like to run, run, run. They lack size and are 7th worst in protecting the rim, which could mean more layups and rebounds for Ball.
Ball over 33.5 PRA
New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-1.5, 244.5)
Norman Powell led Heat in scoring in 5 of past 6 games and has seen his 3PA rise in the last 4 games
Scored 38 vs. Knicks on Friday night; Knicks have allowed the opposing leading scorer to make multiple 3s and get 18+ shots in four of last five games
Powell has scored 33-27-38 in last 3 games, all with Bam Adebayo out.
Powell over 25.5 points
NHL on the Ice
Courtesy of Kevin Rogers
Montreal Canadiens (+110) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-130), Total: 6.5
Montreal hits the road following a dreadful end to its homestand, dropping three straight games. The Canadiens face the Blue Jackets, who are off a 2-1 shootout loss to the Rangers on Saturday.
The Habs have been one of the best first period teams in the league this season, posting an 8-3-7 mark. On the road, Montreal has trailed once through the first 20 minutes in eight opportunities.
Jet Greaves is making his fifth straight start for the Jackets, who embark on a four-game road trip beginning in Winnipeg on Tuesday. Columbus has not allowed a first period goal in the past two games, but has not one three consecutive games without giving up a goal in the opening 20.
Montreal has scored a first period goal in six of eight games away from Bell Center and should get off to a solid start here after losing the last three home outings.
Canadiens 1p (-102)
NFL Early Look
In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.
A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.
We aren’t there yet on a lot of games since there are still four teams playing tonight, so make sure to read Wednesday’s edition, which will have more Early Look.
What we like/monitoring today
Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 40.5) at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has broken 20 points once all season (22 vs Arizona in 4th quarter flurry) and have averaged 14 PPG last 5 games.
Seattle just held Rams to 21 points and 6th-best in scoring defense, allowing 19.3 per game.
My worry is a Seattle blowout with their offense, which is 2nd in the league at 29.4 PPG, but even 30-7 gets us there.
Under 40.5 points
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 50.5)
Nothing we saw on Sunday night made us feel good about the lines, but it was on the road, outdoors in windy elements that, frankly, Jared Goff and the Lions don’t do well in.
But this one is at home, in the down, and off a loss. One of the more ridiculous and awesome stats I saw two weeks ago applies here. Per Evan Abrams at Action Network. The Lions have won and covered 13 straight games off a loss.
And the Giants stink. New coach or not, their defense is 29th in yards, 30th in scoring, 30th in rushing and 22nd in passing.
We call this a get-right spot for the Lions and their offense.
This is moving, so grab the -10. I’ve seen -10.5s pop up.
Lions -10 (-120)
Also looking and considering.
Bears -3 vs. Steelers
I keep picking the wrong week to fade the Steelers, but I still don’t believe in them. A win over the Bengals is not going to change my mind.
At best, Rodgers will be playing with a broken left wrist bone. At worst, Mason Rudolph starts.
Bears continue to not get any respect, but they are leading one of the best divisions in football.
Vikings +6.5 vs. Packers
Waiting for the 7s to pop up. Packers just aren’t as good as we thought they would be as the last 3 games (losses to Panthers and Eagles and escaping Giants) have shown us.
VIkings have lost 4 of the last 5 against a gauntlet that has included the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, and Bears. Three of the four losses were in one-score games
Both Vikings-Packers games last year were decided by 2 points.
Jaguars -2.5 at Cardinals
Jags are a tough team to figure out but they are currently a playoff team in the AFC
Cardinals not going anywhere, but at least offense looks good under Brissett. Leaning Jags in this one
Panthers +6.5 at Niners
Surprise.. the Panthers are 5-5 and right there in the NFC South race. Packers are the only team of significance they have beaten, but getting a TD vs the Niners? Hopefully gets to 7 by MNF.
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
We still have tonight’s games, but it was not a pretty week. I always believe in 100 pct transparency, so celebrate the wins, but also show the losses. Things didn’t bounce our way in terms of injuries, benchings, and late game action, but we move on.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates, MLB postseason and NHL underway.
NFL
Went 1-2 in our game/side/total picks, hitting on the Dolphins -2.5 and losing late on the Panthers/Falcons total and the Bengals offense not showing up.
After getting our TNF prop right by a half yard to start the week, the ball bounced the other way on Sunday. We went 3-6 (2-6 on Sunday), which included just missing Waddle in the Spain game when he dropped his last two passes, Josh Jacobs already halfway to his rushing total before getting injured, and in the whopper of the day, Justin Herbert getting benched 1.5 yards from his rushing total..
CFB
Our Betting with Bearman guest went 2-1 in his main plays and 1-4 in his leans.
Our BwB subscriber picker went 3-5 in his main games.
NBA/NHL: Went 1-1, winning NBA and losing NHL
Betting Tip of the Week
Stick to Your Strengths, You Don’t Have To Bet the Board
A common misconception is you should bet every game, but you shouldn’t. Stick to your strengths. Know a particular team well? See edges in totals or first-half bets? Bet what you know and what you know well and not everything and anything.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
Futures portfolio look in
TNF (Bills/Texans) complete coverage, including SGP play
How to use your Week 12 promos
CFB Week 13 and NFL Week 12 line movement we are watching
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