Happy Monday Betting family! Hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl. I know you did if you tailed Betting with Bearman picks, not only for the big game, but for golf as well. It was one of our better Sundays lately, something we hope to build on in the post-football world.
Hockey is off for their Olympic break, so it’ll be mostly NBA and Golf for now. There are 10 NBA games tonight.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer on to preview Super Bowl 60.
I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. We had Hideki Matsuyama this past week, who would’ve earned us $1.7M if he hadn’t choked on the 72nd and 73rd holes. But we will take our 2nd place cash. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. We are at the iconic Pebble Beach this week.
We are excited to announce an affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays every newsletter and are 2-0 so far! We have a free play below.
Today, we are going to give a free one out to start, so here is the Betr play today. Make sure to check me out on Twitter/X for more daily Betr plays. We went 4-2 last week with our Betr plays, turning a profit.
Our analysis is below.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
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NBA on the Court
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat (-7.5, 239.5)
Will start by saying the Utah Jazz are not a very good basketball team. And even when they play well, as they were up 17 over the Magic on Saturday night, well, not going to say it out loud, but not sure they really want to win. They blew the 17-point lead fairly easily with leading scorer Lauri Markkanen, along with Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic not playing the fourth quarter. You do the math.
Now as far as this matchup is concerned, it lays out to me as:
Heat are 3rd in scoring at 119.7 PPG, while the Jazz have the worse defense in the NBA, allowing 126.7 PPG, 8+ points higher than the league average.
Jazz defensive rating is 123.1, also dead last. while Heat play with a top pace of leading the NBA in possessions per game
Heat have played much better at home
Both teams play fast tempo, but that favors Miami, who has a much better shooting team.
Heat have covered in four of their last five games and have 5th-best coverage pct in the league..
They beat Utah by 31 in the previous meeting on the road just 16 days ago.
As noted above, Utah just blew a 17-point lead at Orlando in the first game of its 2-game Florida swing. This is game 5 of their 5-game road trip.
Heat -7.5
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays and a recap of Super Bowl 60
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More NBA on the Court
Bam Adebayo over 19.5 points
Based on what I said above, it won’t surprise you I have a Heat player going over his prop tonight against the horrific Utah defense.
Adebayo has hit 20+ points in 9/11 (16 in other two) and 12/15 games
The Heat big man had 26 points in 31 minutes two weeks ago in this same matchup and is averaging 19.2 in his last 5 matchups with Jazz
Rui Hachimura Over 11.5 Points
With Luka out, Hachimura has hit this in 7 of 8 games this season with the one miss when he only played 19 minutes (and had 11 points)
+5.7 PPG difference without Luka on the court
Thunder defense has allowed 114 PPG in the two games SGA has missed compared to 105.8 PPG in the previous 10 games.
Without Luka, should have more opportunities, especially with OKC focused on LeBron.
Final NFL Season Results
Here is how we did this season, counting everything we gave out in the newsletter, as well as bonus plays on Twitter/X. We crushed it in props, treaded water on sides and lost some on totals, although we got some back in the playoffs.
NFL Main Side/Total Plays: 41-45-3 (47.8%)
- Sides: 22-21-3 (2-3-1 postseason)
- Totals: 19-24 (4-2 postseason)
Main Props (including primetime games): 102-66 (60.7%) (10-6 postseason)
Total: 143-111-3 (56.2%) (16-10-1 postseason)
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
It was a great weekend for Betting with Bearman picks. We had our best golf weekend yet and came out profitable in the Super Bowl. Add the futures that we cashed at NFL Honors on Thursday and it was a great start to February.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).
NFL - Super Bowl 60
Nailed our top bets of Under 45.5 and Seattle -4.5. For the most part, neither were a sweat, although the Under got a little sweaty in the end with 30 point in the fourth qtr and the Pats driving late.
We had Drake Maye’s under 222.5 rush yards for most of the game, but garbage time in a blowout does mean things to you and it got us as Maye passed for 251 of his 295 yards in the fourth quarter. That’s right.. he had 44 passing yards entering the final quarter, making us look like a genius for a bit. Oh well.
We lost our no score first 6 minutes bet for only the second time in the last 10 years.
JSN did not win MVP, but we were correct to not play the QBs, who both struggled.
We hit our Cooper Kupp over 32.5 yards bet as he had a team-high 61.
NBA/NHL
Missed our under in the Kings game
GOLF
Came close to hitting our One and Done pick with Hideki losing in the playoff and had Si Woo Kim +2700 live until the back 9, but we cashed a bunch of place bets.
We hit FIVE of our six Top-20 plays, hitting on Kim, Thorbjornsen (who had the lead with 3 holes left), Coody, McNealy, Theegala. Our only miss was on Koepka, who missed the cut after a terrible opening round.
2-0 in tourney matchups (4-3 on season) as Kitayama beat Clark and Matsuayama crushed Xander
BETR Plays
Went 2-2 in plays for our new partners at BETR, going 2-1 in PGA and 0-1 NBA plays. If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Never Go Higher Than 4 in a Parlay
Unless there’s a real financial reason to, I do not go longer than four sides, totals, or props in a parlay. Sure, the payoff is a lot larger the higher you go, and there’s nothing wrong with going for the lotto ticket from time to time, but in the long run, those don’t hit often and are usually a waste of money. The value does not increase as much as the risk does of adding that extra game.
Stick to what you really know and pick three or four sides/totals/props that you’re strong on. There’s a lot more value in that strategy.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Signature Event preview
Early NFL 2026 thoughts
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