Happy Friday everyone. It’s finally here. The Big Game out in the Bay Area, to decide the Super Bowl champion. It was not the matchup many saw coming, with both teams 60-1 or longer to win Super Bowl 60 when the season started.
We had an exciting night at NFL honors last night as Betting with Bearman took home some awards, cashing our 16-1 play on Tet McMillian for OROY, Mike Vrabel (+200) for COY, and Matthew Stafford for MVP, which we gave out numerous times throughout the season.
Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we had the Ringer Podcast host Raheem Palmer on, breaking down the Super Bowl and NBA trade deadline.
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We are excited to announce an affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays in coming days in the newsletter, so check back for those. We start today with a golf one, which we are giving out free below.
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Today, we are going to give a free one out to start, so here is the Betr play today. We are rolling with two players for Friday’s Round 2. Make sure to check me out on Twitter/X for more daily Betr plays.
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Super Bowl 60 - Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 45.5) vs. New England Patriots
NFL Main Side/Total Plays: 39-45-3 (46.6%)
- Sides: 21-21-3 (1-3-1 postseason)
- Totals: 18-24 (3-2 postseason)
Main Props (including primetime games): 101-65 (60.8%) (9-5 postseason)
Total: 140-110-3 (55.9%) (13-9-1 postseason)
My thoughts mirror the plays from the last few playoff weeks. Simply, the New England offense has now struggled in all 3 playoff games against very good defenses in the Chargers, Broncos, and Texans.
The Pats offense, which ended the regular season 2nd in scoring (28.8 PPG), 3rd in yards (379.4 YPG) and top 10 in rushing and passing, has been a shell of itself in the postseason, only scoring 18 PPG (and that includes a pick 6 and a 10-yard TD drive), 278.3 yards per game and only 147.7 passing yards per game. Maye has two games under 200 passing yards and 5 TOs in 3 playoff games.
Enter the Seattle defense, which is just as good if not better than the 3 the Patriots have already played. Led the NFL in scoring defense (17.2), rush yards per play (3.74) and second in pass yards per play (5.5). They are not the Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Giants, Ravens, who the Patriots played this season. That’s not another knock on the schedule. It’s just facts. The playoff defenses have been a different challenge for Maye and the Pats.
On the offensive side, it’s time to stop doubting Sam Darnold. Yes, he had a bumpy career, but he has had back-to-back great seasons to revive his career, and has reached another gear in the two postseason games, being as efficient as possible vs. San Fran (12/17) and tossing up a 346 yard, 3 TD game vs. the Rams.
Can the Patriots win? Absolutely. They have proven all season they believe in themselves and their coach and can beat anyone. I just think Seattle is better.
And much like I’ve done with the Patriots in every postseason game, I am going to be on the under as well. The combination of both really good defenses and the Patriots struggling against good defenses leads me to a lower scoring game. I’ve taken the under in all 3 Patriots playoff games and went 2-1, and could’ve been 3-0 if C.J. Stroud would’ve stopped giving the Pats points. It was an under game.
Seattle -4.5, Under 46.5 (now 45.5, but gave out at 46.5 last week. Would play as long as 45 or higher)
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