Happy Saturday Betting family! Figured, we are having so much fun with March Madness that we’d give a quick Saturday bonus email to keep you all busy. Plus the nice Florida start to the title defense has me in a good mood. Nothing like showing Duke how a 1 seed should play a 16 seed.
A nice welcome to those who have joined the last couple of days. We’ve had tremendous feedback this week, so let’s keep digging.
We didn’t do as well on Friday as we did on Thursday, but we are still way up on the Tournament so far. Quick summary of first two days, from the newsletter and twitter. Make sure to follow me on Twitter as I give out live bets and thoughts throughout the rounds. At some point I will start as discord.
5-2 pregame bets
5-1 live bets
1-1 in alt line parlays (hit +500 one Thursday)
1-1 in ML dog parlays (hit +1400 one Thursday)
Everything today, like Monday’s, is FREE, but make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly the entire cards on Wednesday and Fridays, plus all our NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Betting with Bearman OG and Pro Football Network’s Kyle Soppe on to preview the NBA’s second half and the golf action.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivor season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
To the picks we go!
Second Round NCAA Tournament Preview
6 Louisville at 3 Michigan State (-4.5, 151.5), 2:45 ET
I was as surprised as anyone to see Louisville get out to a huge lead over South Florida, while missing Mikel Brown. But then it came back to reality in the second half when the Bulls made it a game as expected.
Michigan State might have been the most impressive team of all the favorites on Thursday, just steamrolling ND St.
There’s a reason Sparty has close to a .700 win percentage in the tourney and why Tom Izzo has been to 10 Final Fours.
Michigan State shot 59% and scored 44 points in the paint, dominating inside.
Louisville starting PG Mikel Brown missed his 5th straight game and is not expected back on Saturday, which will make it difficult to score as the Spartans defense is a much different level from what South Florida had.
Michigan State -4.5
Don’t go away! We have some more CBB plays below!
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More Second Round Action
11 Texas vs 3 Gonzaga (-6.5, 147.5), 7:10 PM
Texas has looked fantastic in the play-in game and first round win over BYU, which we gave out in here. Gonzaga was eh vs. Kennesaw State, but I had been warned by friends in Atlanta to expect that.
That said, a two or one game sample size is not going to make us take a side here. I would not be surprised with any result on the side, as Gonzaga is the much better team, but Texas is playing much better.
So we are going to isolate a team total here, in a collaboration with my buddy PFSN’s Kyle Soppe, who was the podcast guest on Tuesday.
If you are an avid reader of KenPom rankings, you know where I am headed with this. The Zags are a top-10 defense per KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, while you may miss your morning coffee scrolling for the Longhorns ranking. They are 85th, only ahead of High Point in the 32 teams left in the field.
It’s the 3rd game in 5 days for Texas, who had to battle SMU just to make the final 64 and then BYU for 40 minutes. They used their big man to beat a smaller and injured BYU team, something that won’t happen with Graham Ike in the middle for the Zags.
We lean Zags and game under, but with Texas having the 247th defense in points allowed, we will play one of the team unders.
Texas Team total under 70.5
Those are the two official plays today. I will also take an alt line parlay of Sparty -2.5, Texas team total under 72.5, High Point +14.5. That’s +315, then use DK boost of 25 pct to boost it back to close tot +400 with better lines. If you’ve been reading me for a while, I love alt-line parlays with my favorite games and boost to then boost it back to a good value. Don’t play this without the boost or you lose the value.
Other leans, which may become official plays (check my twitter for that)
12 High Point (+11.5) vs. 4Arkansas: is better than people think and can hang around with and Arkansas team that went the distance in the SEC and then played an early game out West in Portland on Thursday.
1 Duke (-11.5) vs. 9 TCU: I do not expect Duke to play anywhere near as poorly as they did vs. Siena in the first round. It might actually be a wake up call. That said, man did they look off. If they play Duke basketball, they could win this by 15-25, as they did in each of their last four regular season games. BUT, they only won their ACC Tournament games by 1, 12, and 4, and beat Siena by 6, so something is off there. Caution. But I may get there by 5p.
Betting Data from our friends at BetMGM for Saturday
Popular (+60% of money) Saturday NCAA Tournament bets at @BetMGM
93% on Michigan State -4.5
91% on Duke -11.5
87% on Houston -10.5
81% on Arkansas -11.5
71% on Texas +6.5
66% on Illinois -10.5Saturday NCAA Tournament betting at @BetMGM
Most bet spreads tickets
Michigan State -4.5
Michigan -12.5
Texas +6.5
Duke -11.5
Houston U -10.5
Most bet spreads money
Michigan State -4.5
Duke -11.5
Michigan -12.5
Houston U -10.5
Texas +6.5
Least bet (tickets) team to cover on Saturday?
Answer: @VCU_Hoops
37% of bets are on Rams +10.5 vs. Illinois at @BetMGM
Betting Tip of the Week
Pay Attention to Live Betting
Anyone who has read the newsletter or followed me on Twitter/X knows I love live betting. It’s not for everyone, but if you have time to sit and watch, you can pick off some good edges passed on having seen some of the action and being able to adjust.
Golf, and the upcoming baseball season, are great places to jump in and try it.
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