Happy Monday Betting family! It’s Monday at the end of Week 8 of the NFL and Week 9 of the CFB season and a rare Dolphins victory Monday. Who saw that coming?
Tonight marks only the 32nd time that we have had an NHL game, MLB game, NBA game and NFL game all on the same night, now called the Sports Equinox. We will have a play in each sport in today’s newsletter and get a jump on next week’s NFL slate.
As is usually on Monday, everything today is free. But make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had FanDuel Research Senior Editor Austin Swaim on, where he helped break down UFC, NBA, and both CFB and NFL games.
This week, ESPN radio and SportsGrid betting analyst Mark Zinno will be our podcast guest.
Let’s get into it as we have the 32nd Sports Equinox tonight!
NFL Season | ATS | Through 10/26 | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
Favorites | 65-55 | Over | 64-54 |
Underdogs | 55-65 | Under | 54-64 |
Home Fav | 42-33 | Home Dogs | 22-23 |
Road Dogs | 33-42 | Road Fav | 23-22 |
Includes International games
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Monday Night Football in Kansas City
NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 16-15-1
- Sides: 7-7-1
- Totals: 9-8
Main Props (including primetime games): 47-26
Total: 63-41-1
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 47.5)
As noted in previous newsletters, I am not a fan of laying double digits in the NFL unless its a true mismatch, such as the Colts/Titans game yesterday. Without Jayden Daniels, this could possible fall into that category, and if told to choose a side, I would lean towards laying with the Chiefs, but the Commanders as a whole are a solid team dealing with many injuries.
The Chiefs have won four of five, winning by double digits in the four wins and could very well have won all five if they could’ve stopped a stumbling Trevor Lawrence at the goal line. My lean is Chiefs -10.5 and would love to find a -10 out there, but we will head to the prop market for this one, while likely using the Chiefs in some alt parlays.
Patrick Mahomes over 23.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mahomes has hit this number in his last three games and in five of seven games this season.
The Chiefs have not been able to run the ball (with their running backs) all season and Mahomes has been the leading rusher in three of the games this season.
The Commanders allowed both Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, two QBs who have no issues taking off, run for 60 and 44 yards. Mahomes runs more than either one of them.
Plenty of more on this game and NBA, NHL and World Series below
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Let’s give you an SGP for Monday before we get into the other sports and the Equinox.
SGP for Monday Night
We will use our Mahomes rushing prop at an alt number and find a few more legs for the SGP, using DK’s profit boost.
Mahomes 15+ rushing yards (-225) - alt line of our main prop
Mahomes 22+ completions (-208) - he’s reached this in six of seven games this season, including the last five.
Mariota 25+ rushing yards (-164) - in his three starts this season, Mariota has rushed for 40, 20 and 34. Herbert, Hurts, Wilson, Jackson and Lawrence all had 15+ rushing on Chiefs, with all but Hurts going over 25.
Rice 6+ receptions (-165) - Rice had 7 receptions in his season debut last week and 6+ in 10 of his last 14 games with Mahomes.
+315 boosted to +410
World Series Game 3
Toronto Blue Jays (Max Scherzer +167) at LA Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow -206),
As things shift to the west coast, I think we see the home team throw the first punch. This postseason, opponents are 4-of-22 against Tyler Glasnow in the first three innings with eight strikeouts (a well placed infield single makes that batting average a little better than it arguably should be).
He's been nothing short of great all postseason and with a .148 opponent batting average against this season on the rare instances he's in a position with RISP, the Blue Jays would really need to show well to get on the board early.
On the flip side, Max Scherzer pitched well 1.5 weeks against in Seattle, his only start this postseason (5.2 innings, three hits, and two earned runs), but I'm not buying it and think Toronto could be looking at an early hook should he struggle.
This season, the 1-2-3 spots in opposing lineups are hitting .341 against Scherzer with 42.9% of knocks allowed going for extra bases. Due to my confidence in Glasnow, I don't think we need much to cash this Dodgers -0.5 through three innings (-105) and I like the top third to put is in a good spot!
NBA
Michael Porter Jr. over 25.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
26, 42, 21 in first three games this season, taking at least 15 shots in all three games
Houston has allowed 27 three’s in two games so far, so Porter should be able to get a bunch up there (he is 20-26 through 3 games)
NHL on the Ice
Boston Bruins (+145) at Ottawa Senators (-75), Total 5.5
Boston snapped a six-game slide in Saturday's 3-2 victory over Colorado. The Bruins head to Ottawa to face the Senators tonight, who are coming off a 7-1 rout of the Capitals.
The Senators have finished Under the first period total in three of the past four games, including in Saturday's victory over Washington.
Ottawa yielded 13 shots on goal to Tampa Bay in the first period of the season opener, but has limited the last eight opponents to less than nine shots on goal in the first period.
Boston has given up a first period goal in seven consecutive games, but the juice is low for the Over in the first period. Let's take the Under in the opening period in this Atlantic division showdown.
1st period under 1.5 goals (-105)
Sports Equinox Parlay
If you wanted to use a pick from all four sports for the rare Sports Equinox, the Mahomes o23.5 rush yards, Porter over 25.5 P/R/A, Dodgers first 3 innings -.5 runs and Ottawa/Boston 1st period under combines for a +1265 parlay before any boosts are involved.
NFL Early Look
In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.
A perfect example: Last week’s Dolphins/Falcons under 46.5. We gave it out here on Monday and it moved down to 44 by game time. Take it Monday with Betting with Bearman and it’s a win. Take it Sunday and it’s a push.
What we like/monitoring today
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-5.5, 45.5)
We don’t know the statuses of Michael Penix or Drake London, but the Falcons offense was beyond dreadful without them on Sunday vs. a terrible Dolphins defense.
And when the Falcons are rolling on offense, it’s a ball control, rushing attack with Bijan Robinson and short passes to London and Kyle Pitts. Atlanta was 4th in rushing and 4th in TOP before the Dolphins disaster.
While everyone pays attention to Drake Maye, the Patriots defense has quietly been among the best in football. They’ve allowed 20 or fewer in the last five games and in six of eight this season. Pats defense is now 2nd in the NFL against the run, 9th in total yards and 4th in scoring.
Last four Patriots games have all failed to reach 46, even with Drake Maye throwing up MVP-type numbers.
Under 45.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3, 49.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m all in on this Indy team. They have more than proven they are for real in the AFC an are a true title contender with an offense leading the NFL in yards and points and a defense that is in the top 10 in opponents points.
I’ve been fading the Steelers for weeks, not believing their 4-1 start. Two losses to the Bengals and the Packers later, it’s 4-3 and a home dog situation.
Steelers allowing 112.7 rush yards per game, 18th in NFL, which won’t be good against the Jonathan Taylor express train.
Colts aren’t afraid of going on the road, smashing the Chargers two weeks ago and losing late to the Rams.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 53.5) - Monday night
The Cowboys have been he model of inconsistency, with 3 wins, 4 losses and a tie, but they have been consistent with one thing: playing well at home, especially on offense
Dallas is 2-0-1 at home this year, scoring 40, 40 and 44 in the three games
Arizona is in a tailspin, having lost five straight entering their bye week. Defense has allowed 22+ points in the last four games, and those offenses are not Dallas.
Cardinals are 25th against the pass, which spells trouble vs. the Cowboys top passing offense. And the Cardinals offense, 20th or lower in all categories, won’t be able to keep up.
Cowboys -2.5
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
In keeping with the 2025 pattern, we were profitable in NFL and down in CFB, while splitting our MLB and NHL weekend picks.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates, MLB postseason and NHL underway.
NFL
Went 2-1 in our game/side/total picks, hitting on the Dolphins/Falcons under and last night’s Packers win, but we missed on the Niners, who laid an egg vs. the Texans.
Despite losing the Jaylen Warren prop last night, we went 4-4 overall in props and are still 21 games over .500 in props this season.
CFB
Our podcast host went 1-2 in CFB action, while I went 1-1 in my CFB plays, hitting Miss State vs Texas, but losing ALabama’s cover.
NBA
Our podcast host went 2-1, getting a bad beat on the third play with New Orleans throwing the ball away with seconds to go.
I hit Anthony Edwards over points prop Friday night.
MLB/NHL: Lost World Series Game 1 play, won NHL 1st period play in Columbus.
Betting Tip of the Week
Stick to Your Strengths, You Don’t Have To Bet the Board
A perfect tip for a night like tonight with action across all major sports.
A common misconception is you should bet every game, but you shouldn’t. Stick to your strengths. Know a particular team well? See edges in totals or first-half bets? Bet what you know and what you know well and not everything and anything.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
Futures portfolio look in
TNF (Ravens/Dolphins) complete coverage, including SGP play
How to use your Week 9 promos
CFB Week 10 and NFL Week 9 line movement we are watching
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