Happy Wednesday, the last day of the week without football. We like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a pick off Steelers-Bengals, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.
We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and hit on an MLB game.
Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will did into where the action is on the NFL slate with Vegas Insider’s Patrick Everson
And upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.
Let’s get to it!
Steelers-Bengals on Thursday Night Football
NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 12-14-1
- Sides: 4-7-1
- Totals: 8-7 (3-0 in Week 6)
Main Props (including primetime games): 39-18 (5-5 in Week 6)
Total: 51-32-1
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 43.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
This game is screaming at me to take the under. Two AARP QBs in Rodgers and Flacco. Two teams struggling to run the ball (Steelers 29th and Bengals dead last at 32nd).
But I trust the Bengals defense as much as I believe the Dolphins win the Super Bowl this year. There’s bad and then there is Bengals bad. 31st in yards allowed, 28th against the run, 31st against the pass and allowing 30.5 points per game (30th worst). Heck, 30.5 is 70 pct of the way to the total.
I will be bumping the total up in the Same Game Parlay below, but not playing it at 43.5 just yet. I also lean towards the points at 5.5 here, though that’s behind the under in terms of my lean. I’m not there yet on the Steelers, but maybe I should be considering how bad the rest of the division is right now. They are winning and that is all that really matters, but it’s not necessarily pretty.
So, we have our leans, but will head to the prop market as we like to do in primetime windows and play something you have seen in this newsletter main times already this season.
Chase Brown under 45.5 rush yards (DraftKings)
I know this is low, but Brown runs behind the worst rated run-blocking OL (per PFF) in the NFL and it’s not close. PFF’s rating for Cincy is 37.1 with the 31st-ranked Chargers 44.7.
Cincy averages 56.7 rushing yards per game through 6 weeks, by far the worse in football. The Titans are next at 81.8.
Brown has gone over 45 rushing yards once this season and it was only 47 vs Jaguars in Week 2. His other games have been 43, 3, 40, 37, 42, so he’s been around the total and this could be a sweat. His 2.7 yards per rush is worst in the NFL among starting RBs
The Steelers run defense is not what Brown faced last week vs. the Packers, but they’ve improved since allowing 100+ yards to Breece Hall and Ken Walker III the first two weeks. Since then, the most they’ve given up a RB is 57 to Jordan Mason.
Brown under rushing total is 6-0 this season, so ride when you can. BTW, it’s as low as 42.5 at other books, so grab that 45.5 when you can.
Stick around for more on this game, including our SGP and prop plays below
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