Super Bowl 60 Line Movement? Torrey Pines Hosts PGA Tour

Happy Wednesday betting friends. It’s the first of two Super Bowl weeks, so buckle down and get ready.

First, we are excited to announce an affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays in coming days in the newsletter, so check back for those. We start today with a golf one, which we are giving out free below.

While we give our NBA play out for free tonight in the newsletter, our full Farmers Insurance card, updated Super Bowl content and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we had ESPN Betting analyst Anita Marks on to break down the AFC and NFC title games. This afternoon, we will have Geoff Fienberg from Mayo Media Network on to discuss Super Bowl LX and the Farmers Insurance Open.

We have nine NBA games, 3 NHL games and an entire board of CBB games tonight, as well as a Golf tournament starting tomorrow. I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman.

Today, we are going to give a free one out to start, so here is the Betr play today. We are rolling with two players on the North Course on Thursday. This is for Round 1. Make sure to check me out on Twitter/X for more daily Betr plays.

Let’s get to the rest!

An almost full slate of NBA games to choose from tonight. Let’s start with a great Western Conference matchup

This could be a preview of a series we see this summer with a lot more on the line and it’s a treat whenever we get a matchup like that in January.

Neither team played last night and both are reasonably healthy, giving us a good look at these two teams against high level competition. The lone missing piece is Steven Adams for the Rockets, but their elite rebounding rates haven’t flinched with him out and you could argue that their spike in offensive versatility with him sidelined has more than made up for his glass pounding ways.

In this specific matchup, the absence of Adams could prove to be a plus. Houston still has access to a traditional big in Clint Capela should they so choose, but with Reed Sheppard and Josh Okogie getting extended run as a result of the injury, this team projects better against a talented, but up-and-down, Spurs team.

San Antonio is the second worst wide-open three-point shooting team in the league. There is some variance to consider in a stat like that, but this roster isn’t exactly loaded with proven options from distance.

More impactful than the inaccurate shooting is the lack of self-awareness. Over their past nine games, their three-point rate has ballooned to 46.5% (season prior: 41.5%). They are leaning into a weakness and that’s a dangerous way to go about your business against an elite team like the Rockets.

Even if they heat up, Okogie is shooting 38.8% from distance on a limited sample and Sheppard is a threat to launch every time he gets the ball in a halfcourt set. They’d not only have to run hot, they’d have to parlay that with the home team struggling.

That’s a bet I’m not willing to make.

I like Houston’s ability to win the halfcourt battle tonight and with both of these teams ranking bottom-10 in forcing turnovers, that’s where I think this game gets decided. With Kevin Durant’s shot attempts up and turnovers down, he profiles as the best player on the court in this matchup, giving them the ace in the hole should they need it down the stretch.

Rockets -2.5

Stick around for our full Farmers Insurance PGA Tour card, NHL pick, and updated Super Bowl content below