Happy Monday Betting family! Yes, I’m here. Yes, I’m alive. Yes, I’m not happy with how the Gators game ended. The back-to-back dream ends in very frustrating fashion, but as they say “Welcome to March”.
On the bright side, we are up money betting the tourney, as we’ve been successful in pregame picks and very successful in the live market. Make sure to follow me on Twitter/X for all live plays throughout the event. I was 7-2 betting live action in the first two rounds. Yes, Florida was one of the losses.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss full CBB, NBA and golf cards and weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. This week, we had PFSN’s Kyle Soppe on to break down the four NCAA Tournament regions, give out futures and first round plays. Former ESPN Bet Live host Doug Kezirian will join me this week.
Also, I was on with Scott Seidenberg of Bettor Days last night to break down the Sweet 16.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivo
r season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
We are excited about our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here.
Click here to jump down to our Blitzanalytics.co prop of the night. We went 4-2 with our Blitz Analytics plays this past week.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
NBA on the Court
Stephon Castle over 4.5 rebounds
Data from our friends at BlitzAnalytics.co
Before leaving the March 17th game early with a hip injury (1 reb in 21 min), hit his over in this prop in four straight games (7, 7, 11, 9 rebounds - 8.5 per game)
Had 6 rebounds in October’s matchup with Heat. 10 rebounds in two games vs. Heat last year.
Heat are 2nd-worst vs. allowing rebounds to Point Guards (+.42 over the league average)
5.1 RPG on the road this season
Off last 6 days but likely to play tonight.
Castle over 4.5 rebounds
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays, NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 early preview and futures, nuggets, and much more
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More NBA on the Court
Golden State (-2.5, 230.5) at Dallas Mavericks
It's not exactly a fun time in the swing of the NBA season and the form of both of these teams kind of proves that. Dallas is, to some degree, chasing ping pong balls, but they were too good around Christmas and that means that this 1-8 stretch has hardly increased their ping pong ball equity at all while the Warriors (also 1-8 in their past nine) are flatlining and not showing signs of life when it comes down to making a run at the eight-seed in the West.
It's not 100% of the time, but struggling teams let go of the rope on the defensive end with regularity and that's certainly been the case in these instances.
- Warriors: Overs are 13-5 over their past 18
- Mavericks: Overs are 4-1 over their past 5
Dallas has been streaky when it comes to their totals (eight straight under prior to this current stretch and six overs in an eight game run prior), but the stars align to keep their recent trend going for at least one more day.
The Warriors turn the ball over at the fourth highest rate in the NBA, but the Mavs don't generate offensive missteps (9.8% opponent turnover rate over their past 14 games, down from 11.6% this season prior). On the other side, Dallas relies on 2's (54.8% of their points come from inside, fourth highest) and Golden State is a bottom 10 FG% defense inside of the paint.
In today's NBA, everyone can score when playing away from their weaknesses and this lines up to be a spot like that for both teams. I don't expect this to be a visually appealing game, but I do think both teams have a good chance to clear 110 points and that puts us in position to clear the 230.5 that is being asked of us.
Over 230.5 points
Tanking Parlay?
It’s real. These teams just don’t want to win. I was on with Scott Seidenberg on his Bettor Days podcast and we discussed this. Here’s the math.
Magic -13 vs. Pacers
Thunder -15.5 vs Sixers
Hawks -14 vs. Grizzlies
Clippers -13 vs. Bucks
Blazers -14.5 vs Nets
Raptors -13 vs. Jazz
All 13+ point favorites. The moneyline plays -115
More Bam?
Bam Adebayo has hit his points prop in 11 straight games.
Since January 11th: 26 of 31 overs on his points prop.
Tonight vs the Spurs, his number is only 21.5. He had 31 points against San Antonio earlier this year (with Wemby playing).
The Heat have lost 4 straight and are fighting for playoff positioning. They were looking at a 5-seed before the slide; now they're a half-game out of the 8-seed.
Not an official play, but if looking for another leg, Bam over 21.5 has some good trends to it.
NCAA Tournament Down to 16
The good news is that of the eight teams we listed last Monday in our Early NCAA Tournament Futures Preview, where we gave a favorite and non-favorite for each region, seven of the eight remain live. The bad news? The one that isn’t is Florida, but that is a me problem.
Now that we are down to the Sweet 16 (don’t sue me NCAA), here are my updated thoughts on each regional and futures.
NCAA Tournament East Region
Duke -125
Michigan State +475
St. John’s +475
UConn +500
Michigan State (+475) to win East
Has been as impressive as any of the team’s in this region, blowing out North Dakota State in the first round and then using a strong second half to beat tough Louisville team in the second round.
Sparty is 9th in KenPom with both offense and defensive efficiency in the top 25. Offense is 22nd and Defense 13th. They are battle tested with wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue and Illinois and now get a UConn team that, while good, has shown some weaknesses over the last few weeks.
Jeremy Fears Jr. has shown tremendous growth and leads the nation in assists at 9.4 per game. Fears had a combined 27 assists and only nine turnovers in the two Tournament wins.
Yes, Duke is the top team in the land, and the favorite to win the region, but they’ve had 10 minutes of good basketball over the last two weeks. The team that was rolling everyone in season won its three ACC Tournament games by 1, 12, and 4, then barely beat No. 16 Sienna, before struggling for 30 minutes vs. TCU. Plus they get Rick Pitino and St. John’s first, who very well can beat them. At a minus prize, it’s a pass for me, until they start showing they are the Duke we have seen all season.
One more note, the books have UConn as a slight favorite over Michigan State, but Michigan State shorter odds to win the region. I like Sparty to win outright.
My pick in this Regional is St. John’s and Duke play a very close, grind it out game, Michigan State uses its defense and Fears Jr. to shut down UConn and then Sparty takes down the St. John’s/Duke winner in the Regional Final.
NCAA Tournament East Region
Arizona -160
Purdue +215
Arkansas +1000
Texas +2500
Arizona (-160) to win the West
To me, this is the easiest one to pick and the only one I am willing to go lay money on. With Florida out, I have Arizona as the best team with Houston right there with them.
The No. 1 KenPom team is also 4th in offense and 3rd in defense, joining Michigan as the only two teams with top 5 in both.
They are incredibly deep, with 7 players averaging at least 8.7 points a game.
Big 12 POY Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries can win any game for this squad.
Won the best conference in basketball regular season and tournament titles, and have wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama, Houston, Iowa State and Kansas this season.
This should be another 1 vs 2 regional final with Arizona and Purdue dispatching Arkansas and Texas, but I can see Texas pulling off the upset of Purdue and making things interesting with the 25-1 shots. I just don’t think they can win two more games.
NCAA Tournament Midwest Region
Michigan -145
Iowa State +250
Tennessee +700
Alabama +1500
Iowa State (+250) to win Midwest
Iowa State was the pick in the NCAA Tournament preview picks column, and no reason to change that now.
The health of Joshua Jefferson will be a major factor on if this team can win two games in Chicago, but they are as battle tested as it gets and destroyed Kentucky with a relentless second half without Jefferson.
Iowa State finished third in the Big 12, behind two of the top-5 teams in the nation in Arizona and Houston.
The Cyclones completed non-conference play undefeated and five of the Cyclones seven losses were to ranked teams. They have wins over St. John’s (a No. 5 seed), Purdue (a No. 2 seed), who was the top-ranked team in the country before the game, Houston (a No. 2 seed), and Kansas (a No. 4 seed).
The Cyclones are seventh per KenPom, with the fifth-best defense in the land.
Michigan has earned the No. 1 seed and has done nothing to dissuade anyone, minus the first halve against Howard, and will be favored in the Round of 8. Tennessee and Alabama will bring an SEC flavor and recent NCAA Tournament success to Chicago, but Michigan and Iowa State are the better teams here.
I see Alabama and Tennessee hanging tough in both those Sweet 16 matchups, but ultimately it’s the Michigan-Iowa State Regional Final we all predicted, and I’ve been riding Iowa State all along and they are getting triple the price that Michigan is.
NCAA Tournament South Region
Houston +130
Illinois +230
Nebraska +370
Iowa +750
Houston (+130) to win South
Houston gets the home regional as the No. 2 seed, which might’ve been an issue if they had to go through defending national champion Florida, but they don’t after the upset by Iowa.
Houston not only is the best team remaining in this regional, they may be the best in the country, especially the way they are playing, winning each of their NCAA Tournament games by 31 points.
The Cougars have six losses on their resume, all vs. top-20 teams, and all but one by seven points or less.
No. 3 Illinois will be a challenge on Thursday night, but Houston should advance to play the winner of the Big Ten battle between Iowa and Nebraska.
A good story for both the Hawkeyes (haven’t been to Round of 16 since 1999) and Cornhuskers (never been), but the run will end in Houston to the hometown Cougs, who get a chance for revenge after losing in last year’s title game.
The Nebraska/Iowa winner will be a tough out in the Elite 8, but the Houston/Illinois winner should prevail. I have Houston winning both, but for those who see an Illini upset, they split with Nebraska and beat Iowa this season in Big Ten play.
Early Thoughts on Games
Already mentioned I like Sparty (+1.5) to beat UConn and for some reason they are getting points. That’s probably my favorite Sweet 16 play.
Both Duke and St. John’s are top-10 in defense and showed it over the weekend. I am eyeing under 142.5. Duke’s two games this tourney have been 136 and 139, and the Johnnies have played to 132 and 132.
Iowa State (-4.5) should cover vs. a Tennessee team that is talented but doesn’t have the offense to get through the Cyclones defense. Just ask Kentucky.
If I was looking for another underdog, I would pick Iowa (+1.5) to beat Nebraska. Game could go either way, but if McCollum has his Hawkeyes ready like he did for Florida, they are live here.
One more bonus: I think there is a lot of value now on Houston at +750 to win it all. It’s twice as long as the favorites in Duke, Arizona, and Michigan and they are playing just as well with two home games coming up.
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
We had wall-to-wall NCAA Tournament coverage all weekend, including a special newsletter that went out on Saturday and picks all weekend on Twitter/X. Here is a recap of how we did, starting with the beginning of the Tournament on Thursday.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall.
MCBB
While most of the plays were in Wednesday, Friday, or Saturday’s newsletter, we also had plenty of live action on social media throughout the four days.
7-2 live bets
6-5 pregame bets
Hit one of three alt line parlays as we hit on Thursday for +500
Hit one of two ML dog parlays, hitting Thursday’s for +1400
NBA
Went 1-1 NBA props in Friday’s newsletter, hitting Jaden McDaniels, and missing the Jrue Holliday.
NHL
Pushed our Anaheim first period bet
GOLF
Well, we didn’t have any WD’s this week, so that’s a win.
We had a top-20 winner on the tournament winner Matt Fitzpatrick, so we had a good idea he was going to play well, just wasnt sure if he would rebound completely from his close loss at The Players.
Also hit top-20 tickets on Bridgeman and Conners and missed on JT and Ristasune.
BETR Plays
Only had one golf and one NBA one this past week, going 1-1, hitting golf. We are 11-8 so far on golf plays at BETR.
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Shop Shop Shop
If you take anything out of any betting advice, let it be this one … Shop, shop, and shop some more. If you’re only using one book, they have you, and you already lost.
To be a successful bettor in the long term, you need to have the best price. Most legal states have numerous books for you to choose from, and you need to gain every advantage you can. Spend the extra time to shop your price across all books and promos and settle on the best one … always.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The Houston Open PGA Tour preview
Doug Kezirian on Betting with Bearman
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