Happy MLB Opening Night for all that celebrate! While we prefer an entire day of day games to bring in the season, we will have to wait until Thursday for that as MLB and the TV gods have a standalone Yankees-Giants game tonight, on Netflix. Yes, Netflix. I’ll save that rant for the podcast.
It’s also Sweet 16 time, or Bitter Sweet 16 without the Champs. We have you covered with thoughts on tomorrow’s games as well as an entire regional weekend preview below.
While we give out one of our college basketball plays (and a bonus FREE MLB play) for free tonight in the newsletter, but our complete NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 analysis, NBA props/sides, NHL play, and Houston Open golf card are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. This week, we had Sports Betting Analyst Doug Kezirian, formerly of ESPN, on to break down the four NCAA Tournament regions, give out Final Four predictions and plays for Thursday and Friday’s action.
You know that I only recommend tools I actually use, and PoolGenius is what I’ll be using this year when I build out my March Madness brackets and play in a few NCAA Survivor pools.
They’re offering discounts for the Betting with Bearman family if you want to check it out.
One thing a lot of people miss with bracket pools is that winning isn’t really about predicting every game correctly — it’s about understanding what everyone else in your pool is picking and finding the right spots to differentiate. PoolGenius shows public pick rates alongside win probabilities and then generates optimized brackets based on your pool settings, which makes the process a lot more strategic.
They also have an NCAA Survivor tool, which is pretty unique. If you’ve played NFL Survivor, think of NCAA Survivor as packing an entire NFL Survivor season into about three weeks — with even more strategy because of how the tournament works. Their tool grades every possible pick based on win odds, popularity, and how saving teams for later rounds impacts your chances to survive the pool.
If you want to get a feel for the strategy side of survivor pools, their NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide is a good place to start:
They also have an article covering where to play NCAA Survivor Pools if you’re looking for one.
I’ll be using it when I put my brackets together next week, and if you’re looking for an edge in your bracket or survivor pool this year, it’s definitely worth checking out.
We are excited about our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays every newsletter!
Down to the Sweet 16
Since we don’t have a Thursday newsletter, we are going to give our our Sweet 16 Thursday plays today. The first one will be right here on top of the pay wall, and the rest of the plays and regional analysis down below. It’s only $9.99/month or $99 for year.
3 Illinois vs 2 Houston (-3.5, 139.5)- South Region - Thursday
If you read my Monday lookahead, where I picked Houston to go on and win the region, hopefully you were able to get this at -2.5.
If Florida out of the way, Houston becomes the favorite in their home regional, but this won’t be an easy test. Both are in the top-6 of KenPom’s rankings with Houston 4th and Illinois 6th.
Breaking it down further, both have top-10 offenses with Illinois 2nd and Houston 10th. but the difference in this matchup comes on defense, where Houston is 4th and Illinois 24th.
Houston is going to slow the pace down to stop the 2nd-most efficient offense in the country. Illinois 17th in the country is scoring because they are 9th in the country in 3-pointers per game, attempting the 12th most per game. Well, Houston is 48th in 3-pt defense.
You are going to see less possession in this game with both teams near the bottom in possession per game. That favors Houston with Illinois more reliant on their 11 three-pointers per game.
Don’t discount the home crown, which I was ready to complain about if Florida played Houston in the Elite 8, Alas
Houston -3.5
MLB on the Diamond!
The baseball season gets underway tonight. Here is my YRFI/NRFI piece from PrizePicks on tonight’s game.
Top MLB YRFI/NRFI Pick for Yankees vs. Giants in Opening Night Game
Here's your top YRFI/NRFI pick for Yankees vs. Giants in the MLB's 2026 Opening Night Game, including analysis on the matchup.
www.prizepicks.com/playbook-article/mlb-yrfi-nrfi-pick-yankees-giants-opening-night-game
Yankees (-126) vs. Giants (+104), Total 7
Analysis in article above, but I am on NRFI (-150), which is unfortunately -150, but that’s what you are going to get with two aces on Opening Night at the Bay in a pitcher’s park.
Also like the first 5 innings under 3.5 (-110) if you don’t want to lay the -150.
Stick around for the rest of Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament content and betting data, our top NBA and NHL plays, Houston Open PGA picks and more!
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