Happy Monday Betting family! A fourth straight good golf weekend that should’ve been capped off with our first outright of the season with Shane Lowry at 19-1, but the golf gods had other ideas and send two of his balls into the water on the last three holes. Alas, that is golf betting.
Small betting slate tonight, but we have you covered in NBA, NHL and college hoops
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had VSiN’s Zach Cohen on to hit on second half NBA and MCBB action.
I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. We have my former hometown event this week in the Honda Classic. I know it’s called Cognizant Classic now, but it’s Honda Classic to me.
We also have our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays every newsletter and are 2-0 so far! We have a free play below.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
NBA on the Court
Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5, 215.5) at Golden State Warriors
"Clippers on a back-to-back" hasn't exactly been an angle to lean into during the Kawhi Leonard era and while I'm not making a pick ATS for this game, I am taking a positive angle with them, something I haven't done much of when playing the night prior.
Every game matters. That's the case any night for a team in the play-in mix (currently the nine-seed), but a game like this, against a Steph Curry-less Warriors team (eight-seed) that is currently 2.5 games up on them in the standings, go a long ways toward determining playoff paths.
The play-in tournament seems inevitable, but the eight-seed gives you a chance to play fewer games and that's what this team is in the business of doing. Are we 100% in what we will get from Leonard tonight? I'm not. Yes, they were able to cap him at 29 minutes last night thanks to a 20-point win, but that was his first game back after missing the game post-ASB ... missed time that came on the heels of playing three times in four nights (97 total minutes) and showing out at the ASG.
I'm not saying he sits, but is it possible he doesn't carry the load? John Collins and Kris Dunn left last nights win early and this team is coming up on another three-in-four stretch (Wednesday through Saturday), making a thin rotation even more possible.
The Warriors allowed 4.4 more points per 100 possessions in February than January and aren't exactly clicking on all cylinders. Defensive ace Gary Payton II is dealing with an ankle injury that has his status up in the air and while I'd prefer him to miss, I don't need it to back Ben Mathurin’s over points tonight.
We know one thing for sure and that is that he will try his hardest to cash this ticket. The former Arizona standout has been on a volume kick since joining the Clips, taking at least one shot every two minutes of action in four of his past five games. Pair that with a propensity to get to the stripe (10+ FTA in three of his first four with the team and an 87.1% career shooter) against a league average foul rate team and we could be looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 FGA + FTA.
For his career, Mathurin averages 0.95 points per scoring chance (FGA or FTA) and if that holds, anything over 20 combined efforts should get us home against a struggling unit on the other side in what could be a higher than normal usage game.
Mathurin over 17.5 points (20+ is plus money if want to get risky)
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays, and college basketball to look at for tonight
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More NBA on the Court
Jaylen Brown over 6.5 rebounds
This is starting to get out there in the public but he has hit this in 20 of the last 24 games and the books have kept it at 6.5 other than for two nights it got to 7.5
He grabbed 13 boards when the teams met on Feb. 1.
Bucks still without Giannis and are 27th in the league in rebounding
We just need him to play, as he missed the last back end of the last b2b games that Boston played.
Hitting the College Hardwood
1 Duke (-9.5, 147.5) at NC State
I do not take fading Duke lightly. In fact, I don’t do it often and was all over their first half line vs. Virginia on Saturday.
But this is situational spot 101. Doesn’t mean Duke can’t beat the situational spots, but if you are going to hold your nose and fade them, this is when you do.
Duke is off a massive win over Virginia to basically wrap up the ACC race, while NC State just lost on the road to Notre Dame, the fourth loss in five games. The lone win? a 24-pt home win over ranked UNC. Duke is much better than UNC, but you get the point.
The Wolfpack aren’t worried about their tourney spot (yet), but with 4 losses in 5 games, showing up against Duke would be a good turnaround.
Not apples to apples with how much roster turnover there is, but NC State lost by 10 at Duke last year and won this home game two years ago, before beating Duke again in the Elite 8, so they know they can do it.
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Oh Shane, oh Shane. Betting with Bearman had the first outright of the season right there, a 3-shot lead with 3 holes to play and Mr. Lowry did not cooperate, putting two in the water and costing us all the 19-1 shot. If you follow along with me on social media and know I love live golf betting, you won’t be surprised to know I hedged when Lowry was up big, so we did cash a little on Nico’s win. Plus, Lowry still cashed the top-20, as did others.
For the fourth straight weekend, we had a good golf week, cashing a bunch of props.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).
NBA
Lost both props, not a good night
MCBB
We hit our Michigan play from Friday’s newsletter and our Florida 2nd half wager on Saturday that we always take and reminded on Twitter/X.
NHL
Hit our Jets first period play
GOLF
Three weeks ago, we hit 5/6 top-20s. Two weeks ago, we hit 4 of 5 top 20s. This week, we returned 2 of 3 top 20s and missed out top 10.
Lowry did not pay off the 19-1, but he did cash the top 20 and allow us to hedge on Nico.
We hit Brooks Koepka top 20 pick, but lost Johnny Keefer
1-1in tourney matchups (6-7-1 on the season) as Mitchell was someone I had to get on the card and he won, but Smalley’s rally fell one stroke shy.
Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. Our OAD play (Lowry) cashed us a nice $750K, although should’ve been more.
BETR Plays
Went 1-1 in golf plays for our new partners at BETR (10-7 on the golf season).
Missed our NBA BETR play on Friday night, using both props from newsletter.
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Pay Attention to Live Betting
Anyone who has read the newsletter or followed me on Twitter/X knows I love live betting. It’s not for everyone, but if you have time to sit and watch, you can pick off some good edges passed on having seen some of the action and being able to adjust.
Golf, and the upcoming baseball season, are great places to jump in and try it.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Tour preview
Minty Bets on Betting with Bearman podcast!
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