Thunder Huge Favorite To Win NBA Title; How Do You Bet Them?

Happy June to everyone! Somehow, we are almost halfway done with 2025. As the summer approaches, we still have plenty to bet on, long before football gets here.

We will have full Stanley Cup Final and NBA Finals betting previews later in the week, but we are going to get you started with some fun ways to be both championship rounds.

Betting with Bearman strives to make you a more informed and sharper bettor, which we hope you see today. Plenty of different ways to bet games, series, events and players and today’s newsletter hits on them all.

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Enjoy and happy betting!

This is probably not the matchup that ESPN/ABC was hoping for but to me it’s a great matchup featuring the future of the NBA’s youngest star players and should be a fun series to watch.

The oddsmakers are more in line with TV’s thoughts, posting the Thunder as an -800 favorite to take the crown. How does the -800 stack up vs. previous NBA Finals? Glad you asked for that history lesson. (Note: it is now -700 as of Monday morning).

Per our friends at SportsOddsHistory (@SOHistory - a great resource BTW), The -800 opening price is tied for the 5th-shortest price since NBA Finals odds started being record by them in 1968. The previous four (2001 Lakers -2000, 2018 Warriors -1075, 1996 Bulls -950 and 1999 Spurs -900) all won their series.

Ok, that was the history lesson. But how are we going to play it as you aren’t going to lay -700 nor would we give that advice. We will have full preview and picks later in the week as well as Game 1 picks, but here are some fun things to jump on now if you don’t want to lay that -700 price. Let’s also remember that we gave out Pacers +900 before the Conference Finals as a value play. They are now +500, so we have value here to start.

We've discussed the Thunder's road woes (0-7 ATS) in this space previously and you know what that means? It means that they have been pretty darn special at home (7-2 ATS) given how they are thought of entering this series and potentially historically. Yes, they've lost a game at home this postseason, but it took a superhuman performance from the best player in the sport (42 points, 22 rebounds, and 6 assists from Nikola Jokic) and a near buzzer beating transition triple following consecutive missed free throws from a 78% shooter -- it happened, but not exactly in the most sustainable of ways.

Outside of that outlier contest, they are a cool +223 points in eight home games (+27.9 PPG) and have been down right dominant, with the only other ATS loss being 7-point win over Denver when the spread was 10 in Game 5.

And this is where the lesson of price shopping comes into play (more on that in our Tip of the Week below!). On DraftKings, you can grab the Thunder to be leading 2-1 after three games at +120 (+108 at FanDuel) and over at FanDuel, they can be had at +170 to be leading 3-0 at that point (+155 at DraftKings). By leveraging the better lines, you put yourself in a position to lock-in the most amount of profit if you believe that the Thunder win the two home games to start this series (for the record, they are going to be favored in Game 3 at Indiana barring a significant injury -- you're not dead should they drop a game at home).

How you feel about this series can impact the exact unit allocation in these spots, but with these numbers and if you think the Thunder take care of business at home the first two games, you can build a card to both protect yourself an get access to some upside.

Examples
1 unit on both Thunder to lead 2-1 and 3-0 (lock in a 20% profit if one hits)
1.7 units on a 2-1 series, 1.0 units on 3-0
1.0 units on a 2-1 series lead, 1.2 units on 3-0

All are viable options and a way to get exposure to the -700 Thunder at a reasonable price and have some fun with series props. Being that I have a +900 ticket on the Pacers and it’s near impossible to hedge that with -700, those examples above give me some options. Not fail proof as the Pacers could lead 2-1 and Thunder still win series, but they are options to look at.

As predicted before the playoffs and in this column two weeks ago, the Oilers and Panthers are set for the 5th Stanley Cup rematch in the last 60 years. For the record, two of the rematches were won by the same team and two were split.

I think this series has all the makings of going the distance like last year. However, unlike last year, where the Panthers dominated the first three games and Oilers dominated the next three, I think this will be a back and forth series that will be a classic. They are matchup pretty evenly and both playing their best hockey of the season. The odds reflect that it’s a toss up with each team being favored at some point since the series was set.

For me, I think it’s going the distance, so I will play Panthers in 7 (+500) and Oilers in 7 (+450) and turn a profit if it does go the distance. I also have a Panthers 10-1 ticket from before the season, so a hedge on the Oilers is likely in store (although the fan in me says let it ride).

The Colorado Rockies are 9-50 on the season, which is the most games played by any team in baseball history before earning their 10th win. Hard to profit off the huge lines? Have no fear, Betting with Bearman is here.

On the season, if you bet against them every single night on just the moneyline, you would be up roughly 13.1 units, or $1,310 if your unit is $100. I say roughly, because it all depends on what book and what line you got.

If you didn’t want to lay those big ML lines and bet the run line (-1.5) against them every night, you’d be up roughly 17.8 units ($1,718) if you are betting $100 units. Again, depends on where and when you bet it.

If you are itching to get in, the Marlins are -198 on the moneyline and +110 on the run line vs the Rockies today at 6:40p. I cannot and will not in good conscious recommend laying $2 on the Marlins, so this is a stay away for me. Bet the battle of 1993 expansion teams at your own risk.

Minnesota Twins (-162, Joe Ryan) at Athletics (+136, Luis Severino), 9

Ok, so it happened. We knew it would and was a matter of when. Perfection can’t last forever. What am I talking about? Friday, we lost our first MLB play since launching the newsletter 3 weeks ago. What does that mean? Nothing! We keep on the horse! Off we go for some AL action tonight.

The Athletics were a plucky underdog with a winning record three weeks ago, but reality has set in since and they've dropped 17 of their past 18 (they enter this series after a winless six game road trip). Over that stretch, they are striking out at the eighth highest rate and the power they showcased early in the season has all but been eliminated from their profile courtesy of the leagues lowest average launch angle.

Call me crazy, but a team that can't make consistent contact and pounds the ball into the ground when they do is one I'm interested in targeting. Minnesota’s Joe Ryan comes to town tonight sporting a relatively clean advanced profile with the exception for allowing opponents to elevate the ball in a dangerous way. That'll worry me most days, but this isn't most days and his ability to sustain his effectiveness as the game wears on (.194 opponent batting average after his first trip through the lineup) has him as a building block in my DFS lineups tonight.

He's a good bet to keep the home team in check and given that the Twins' bullpen ranks third in ERA this season, I'm not sure there's a wrong way to bet against the Athletics' offense. I have them under 3.5 runs for the entire game tonight, but that's not the only way I'm getting exposure.

Luis Severino's best days are behind him, but he can still produce in spurts. This season, opponents are hitting just .180 against him on his first trip through the order, thanks in large part to him locking down the primary run producers (3-4 hitters have 12 hits and 13 strikeouts in 67 at bats against the righty this season). He's been strong when holding the handedness advantage this year, something he'll have over two of Minnesota's primary threats (Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa), making him a decent bet to at least get off to a good start in this spot.

The Twins have cooled as a collective over their past 10 games, scoring 5+ runs just twice and being held to three or fewer runs on six occasions over that stretch. I overshot this total by a full run when forecasting the lines, so I'll green light most "under" plays, but the A's do own the second worst 'pen in the sport and I'd rather not have to sweat that out. Under 2.5 runs in this game through three innings will get some support for me, with the Athletics' team total for the game being the larger wager.

Picks: A’s team total for game under 3.5 runs; game total under 2.5 runs for first 3 innings

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days.

What else happened this weekend?

We will have Super Regional preview later in the week once all 16 teams are set, but here are the 10 teams that have advanced, with their odds and my thoughts:

Arkansas (+425): the 3rd overall seed breezed through their home regional, giving up 6 total runs. Depending on how LSU does today, Arkansas might be the best team left in the field and primed to take it down

Auburn (+2000): Auburn entered as the 4th overall seed but with much longer odds and they delivered with a sweep of the regional. Next up is underrated Coastal Carolina in the Supers.

Coastal Carolina (+2500): Speaking of Coastal, they have one loss since April 1 and looked dominate in a tough regional that a lot of people didn’t think they would win. This team is absolutely live and should be on your card when updated odds come out.

FSU (+3500) and UCLA (+4000): both the Seminoles and Bruins breezed through their regionals and have some great pre-tourney value with those opening odds. UCLA gets the upstart Road Runners in the Supers.

Arizona (+6000) and Duke (+7000), West Virginia (+8500), Louisville (+12500), UTSA (+12500): These 2 seeds that got through road regionals. Arizona did not have to face 1-seeded Oregon, who went 0-2, but Duke took care of top-seeded Georgia in Athens and Louisville beat No. 1 overall seed Vandy on Saturday, West Virginia knocked off Clemson and UTSA took care of Texas. The most impressive part of UTSA is that they beat Texas twice in the regional and went 3-0 vs. them this season. I would keep my eye on the Road Runners.

No shortage of sports this weekend as May turns to June. In addition to the NBA and NHL Finals getting underway, the PGA Tour is in Canada, the French Open will finish up, softball will crown a champion at the College World Series and the Road to Omaha will send 8 teams to Nebraska by the end of the Weekend. In addition, we have a UFC PPV card from New Jersey. Some quick thoughts to get you ready for the week:

Shop Shop Shop!

If you take anything out of any betting advice, let it be this one … Shop, shop, and shop some more. If you’re only using one book, they have you, and you already lost.

To be a successful bettor in the long term, you need to have the best price. Most legal states have numerous books for you to choose from, and you need to gain every advantage you can. Spend the extra time to shop your price across all books and promos and settle on the best one … always.

This section will be reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearmanPFN on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.

We’ve talked about the DraftKings “King of the Diamond” promotion, where if you pick a HR hitter on the team that scores the most runs, you share a $1M in bonus bets with everyone else who did the same. On Friday night, the Twins entered the 10th inning tied 6-6 with the Mariners before putting up 6 runs in the 10th to help 284 people win $3,522 in bonus bets. That stinks for those who had the below HRs for the Rangers or Blue Jays, each of which had 11 runs on the evening. That my friends is a bad beat.