Undefeated Teams Go Down; Two Monday Night Games to Play Tonight

Happy Monday Betting family! This must be your lucky day as you get to watch the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins play football tonight. We have you covered for that snooze fest below.

Was not a stellar weekend on the sides and totals side, but we did awesome with the props, going 8-1 from Thursday through Sunday night. That more than made up for the 0-4 side and total slate. On to the next week!

All the Monday night picks below are free today, but if you want the full cards on Wednesday and Friday, which include the red-hot props, Upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.

Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had VSiN’s Matt Youmans and this week, we have Yahoo! Sports Jason Fitz.

Let’s get into it as we have two Monday night football games. Note: with two Monday night games, there are many lines missing for next week. I will have the early look in a special bonus newsletter on Tuesday and it will be free for all.

We wrap up Week 4 with two Monday night games, one in Miami and one in Denver. Here is how we look heading into Monday night.

NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 8-9-1
- Sides: 4-4-1
- Totals: 4-5
Main Props (including primetime games): 24-10 (8-1 in Week 4)
Total: 32-19-1

Since you aren’t going to really want to watch this matchup of crappy teams, we will give you reasons to bet on it and watch it.  The Dolphins have won nine straight home games vs. the Jets, last losing in the 2015 season, but this isn’t your father’s Miami Dolphins.  

I don’t like either side in this game. My lean is to the under with both having bad offenses, but the fact its, their defenses are worse. The Jets are 29th in scoring defense (31.0 PPG allowed), 22nd in total defense (340.3 yards per game allowed) and 25th in total offense (271.7 yards per game). They’ve been outgained by 68.7 yards per game, 7th-worst in the league.  Miami’s defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play, which is 29th in the NFL and 8.45 pass yards per play, 30th in the NFL. 

So let’s go to the prop market for game 1.

Justin Fields o45.5 rushing yards (DraftKings)

You can pick your poison against a Miami defense that can’t get off the field, allowing 6.1 yards per play. With the Jets have a split backfield in Allen and Hall, we are going to go with something they also can’t stop… a running QB.

Our second game of night is out in Colorado as the Broncos try to rebound from back-to-back walk-off losses.

The 2-0 start was nice for the Bengals and a big difference from what they are used to, but the loss last week to the Vikings was not a fluke. A Vikings team that just got run out of Ireland but a hurting on a terrible Bengals defense and the normal Bengals offense can’t go toe-to-toe without Joe Burrow.

The Bengals defense, which finished near the bottom of every statistical category each of the last two seasons, continues to be a problem in 2025: 25th in total yards and passing yards allowed, 21st in rushing yards allowed and 26th in scoring defense.

And the offense has been worse, entering Week 4 32nd in total yards (220.7 yards per game), 32nd in rushing offense (49.0 yards per game) and 27th in passing offense (171.2 yards per game). 

The Broncos should win this one easily, but their offense has been a mess so far this season. They have an offensive rating of 59.4 per PFF, 29th in the NFL and one spot behind their opponent. It’s been particularly bad on the passing side, with only 173.0 yards per game, 25th in the NFL. Nothing better than a Bengals defense to help fix that problem.

I lean Broncos -7.5 and will take it for sure if it goes to -7. No interest in the total with too many variables like bad Bengals defense and two struggling offenses. Back to the prop market!

Chase Brown u54.5 rushing yards (DraftKings)

If you are doing a single SGP, I like the following:

Value +390, boosted to +585 with 50% boost

If you are doing an SGPx over both games, I’d throw Fields alt rushing line in there and drop one of the other legs. Remember, no more than four!

How Did We Do?

Thank goodness for props. Our NFL games went 0-4 on the weekend, but we went 7-1 in props to get a small profit with an 8-4 NFL record. My CFB games went 1-1, a small slate since I was at the Ryder Cup all day.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter).

NFL

CFB

How Did the Weekend Go in Sports Betting

Not well for Joe Public. For a complete recap of NFL splits, check out the table at the top of the newsletter.

To Hedge or Not To Hedge

I’ll start this section by saying hedging isn’t for everyone. The mathematicians and EV+ bettors will correctly tell you that you lose value when hedging and it’s not worth the price. However, I’m also a fan of guaranteed money, so, in the right spot, I advocate for it.

For example, if you have a four-leg parlay for 10-1 and the first three legs win, you could hedge at whatever value you feel comfortable at, guaranteeing yourself a profit on the bet.

Yes, you are taking value away, as noted above, and may only get 8-1 value. But you’re also putting cash in your pocket and avoiding losing that last leg. I’m not saying hedge down the middle, but I’m a fan of getting your original bet back or even doubling it to snatch that profit. This topic deserves its own page or book, but it’s really a personal preference.

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