Unders Dominate NFL Week 1; A Player Prop for MNF

Happy Monday Betting family! Yes, despite embarrassing performances by the Florida Gators and Miami Dolphins, we are cheery this morning. Why? Because I learned long ago there is more to root for then your own teams, like the teams you bet on.

And bet on them we did, gaining +13.5 units in the first full CFB/NFL weekend. We hope you tailed and for those of you who just got a taste of the action before the pay wall, make sure to buy the rest, because +13.5 units is no joke. A quick recap (more below)

Where can I get those? Glad you asked! Upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.

Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Chris, The Bear” Fallica on, where he provided even more winners and told us to correctly stay away from the Patriots in Week 1.

VSiN’s Tim Murray will be the guest this week.

Let’s get into it as we have a Monday night football game, early look at Week 2 and much more!

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears

Welcome to our first official Monday Night Football game of 2025. Interesting matchup between a team that lost their QB from last season vs. a division rival with a new coaching staff with No. 1 pick Caleb Williams.

I am not in love with the side or total, although I lean Bears at home with the same stat I used on Friday (Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 24-9 ATS since 2010, including 11-4 ATS since 2018 and 19-6 ATS since 2012. This went 1-2 on Sunday, but the two losses were by the hook, so…)

I am headed to the prop market.

T.J. Hockenson o42.5 receiving yards

I’ll be playing that prop and likely mix a lower number in with the Bears in a few Same Game Parlays.

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: last week in this section, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

Last week in this spot: 3-0 in early looks and 1-2 in other looks we were monitoring. 1-1 CFB

Week 2 is one of my favorite weeks to bet, since everyone overreacts to things they thought they knew and things they saw in Week 1.

We will have a full card later in the week, but let’s take a peek.

What we like/monitoring today

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42.5) at Indianapolis Colts

If you watched the Broncos on Sunday, the strong defense, holding no. 1 pick Cam Ward to 4 FGs, was not surprising. In fact, it went according to script from what we said in the column. However, the offense looked awful and cost us what should’ve been an easy cover and made us sweat out the survivor play.

On the other side, with all due respect to the perfect game Daniel Jones and coach Shane Steichen pitched on Sunday, the Dolphins defense is that bad and was unprepared. The Broncos are neither. To me this is too high and should be in the high 30s and a slight overreaction to what the Colts did on Sunday to Miami. Under 42.5 (I did make this bet today)

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)

While I am not drinking the Aaron Rodgers Kool-Aid just yet, I do think it is a good fit for Rodgers there, compared to what he had in New Jersey. Seattle disappointed me on Sunday is playing awful at home vs. the Niners. They couldn’t run the ball and Sam Darnold seemed to think he only had one wide receiver. Maybe that’s all he has. I like Steelers -2.5 here and have already seen it move to -3 in some markets, so if you like it, hit it today.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 43.5)

This isn’t any sort of overreaction line, but I think the wrong team is favored here. The Bucs, who we all liked in the preseason, didn’t play well in Atlanta, yet still rallied to win against a team that swept them last year. And while the Texans defense looked great against a tough Rams offense, the Texans offense was awful. The turnover at OL and injuries at RB showed as they totaled 265 total yards. This being 2.5 in Houston means the bookmakers basically are calling these two teams even and I don’t think that’s the case. I haven’t taken it yet as I am hoping to get a +3, but if you don’t mind spending a little juice now, move it there in case it other agree with me and it moves to +2. Bucs +3 (-125).

Others that I am eyeing for now

On the college side, if there’s one team that has been an embarrassment for both games this season, it’s been UCLA, who has gotten outscored 73-33 by Utah and UNLV and they weren’t even that close. New Mexico is not a great team by any stretch, but they hung around with Michigan week one and are getting 15.5 on Friday night.

USC offense keeps rolling and is 2-0 in team totals. It’s 40.5 currently. I am going over again, this time vs. Purdue.

South Florida still getting no respect, catching 17 from Miami. The Canes should win this, but so should’ve the Gators, who were 17-point favorites and lost.

How Did We Do?

In a word? Awesome. It was a very profitable weekend and if you paid the $99 Founders’ Tier price, you made it back and then some.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with our first weekend of a full NFL slate, a 2nd week of CFB action and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days

NFL

CFB

MLB: lost our Friday night MLB play in Angels-A’s game.

How Did the Weekend Go in Sports Betting

Not well for Joe Public. For a complete recap of NFL splits, check out the table at the top of the newsletter.

New York Mets (Nolan McLean, -121) at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola, -101)

The bigger name is pitching for the home team, but my money is siding with the road team.

McLean is an interesting prospect ... he was a two sport kid entering college and the Mets spent a top-100 overall pick on him as a two-way player in 2023. He's not Shohei Ohtani or anything like that, but athletes like this have a unique advantage over the competition because they've been forced to look at the game in a more holistic way than their peers.

We are buying into a bit of an unsustainable heater (he's won all four of his career starts while allowing less than one hit for every six outs recorded), but his strikeout stuff has me intrigued against a Phillies offense that is the fourth most aggressive over the past five weeks.

On the other side, Aaron Nola has been far from ace we want him to be. Over his last 28 innings, he's coughed up 31 innings with nine homes. 

That's not great.

The average launch angle has been over 18 degrees in three of his past four starts and with the Mets ranking second in barrel rate since August 1st, those fly balls project to do some damage.

I'm not going to get exotic or cute in this spot. I'll take the Mets on the moneyline (-121), helping them avenge a sweep at the hands of the Phills from just a few weeks ago. Trae Turner left yesterday's game with a hamstring strain and while that's not driving my pick, the potential for the league leader in hits being on the pine doesn't hurt!

In football, “3” and “7” are the two biggest key numbers since field goals are worth three points and a touchdown with the PAT is worth seven points. In terms of final scores, 14-15% of NFL games end in a three-point margin of victory and 9-10% of games are decided by seven points, the highest of any two numbers.

Shopping lines, as mentioned above, to ensure you get those key numbers is a crucial part of the process. If the price is correct (and this varies from book to book and person to person), you could buy a half point (called the hook) to get there.

Look no further than Falcons +2.5 and Seahawks +2.5. Both seemed like the right side all game and lost by 3, meaning the hook.

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