Upsets, Bad Beats and More in a Wild Football Weekend; NFL Prop to Bet on MNF

Happy Monday Betting family! Another week, more Dolphins and Gators losses, but betting wins. It’s a good trade off.

We end the NFL Week 3 action tonight in Baltimore and have MLB coming down the stretch. Later this week, we will have a Ryder Cup preview as it’s that time too.

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VSiN’s Matt Youmans will be the guest this week.

Let’s get into it as we have a Monday night football game, early look at Week 4 and much more!

NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 8-5-1
- Sides: 4-2-1 (includes Buffalo loss TNF)
- Totals: 4-3 (2-1 Sunday)
Main Props (including primetime games): 14-9 (4-3 entering MNF)

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 53.5)

We finish off NFL’s Week 3 with a potential Super Bowl preview as the Lions are in Baltimore to face the Ravens. This is a matchup of two top-5 offenses in the NFL coming into Week 3. The Ravens lead the NFL in points per game at 40.5, while the Lions are 3rd at 32.5. The Lions are 5th in the NFL in total offense and passing offense and the Ravens lead the NFL at 6.54 yards per play.

Including playoffs, the Ravens have scored 25-plus points in their last eight games and in 16 of their last 19 games.  Including playoffs, the Lions have scored 30-plus points in seven of their last eight games.

This would lead me to lead towards the over, but 53.5 is too rich for my blood and I went 0-1 in the one over I took this week with Steelers and Patriots. If I were to pick a side, I lean Lions plus the points, but I also know I missed the bigger numbers of +5.5 and +6 that were around earlier in the week.

Instead, I am headed to the prop market.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions (DraftKings)

Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing TDs (-176 at FanDuel)

I’ll be playing both those props and adding Lamar over rushing yards and Henry ATD in an alt Same Game Parlay with a boost.

Same Game Parlay

Lamar o1.5 passing TDs
Gibbs o3.5 receptions
Lamar 40+ rushing yards
Henry ATD
Value: +428 and boosted to +642 with FD 50% boost

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: In Week 1 in this section, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

Last week in this spot: 2-2 in early looks and 4-0 in other looks we were monitoring. some of which ended up making it into Friday’s card. We went 2-0 in our CFB early looks.

We will have a full card later in the week, but let’s take a peek.

What we like/monitoring today

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 41.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are two plays away from 0-3 and complete panic in Pittsburgh. But as Mike Tomlin’s teams tend to do early in the season, they find a way to win. But the Vikings are a step up in class from the Patriots and Jets and should have no problem in Ireland vs. Pittsburgh. It doesn’t seem to matter who is at QB or RB for Kevin O’Connell’s offense as they can roll with anyone back there as we saw vs. Cincinnati this past week. I am good laying the 2.5 on the road with the Vikings and would grab it before it goes any higher.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 44.5)

Congrats to the Carolina Panthers for realizing the 2025 season started as they put a hurting on the Falcons, 30-0. Before you say “well Bryce Young and the Panthers woke up”, realize that score was 10-0 at the half, then aided by a pick-6 to get to 17-0 and a complete Falcons offensive meltdown.

The Panthers had 224 total yards, which is hard to fathom in a 30-0 win. That’s how bad the Falcons were. They are still 30th in the league in yards/play. We were on the under 44.5 in that game and are going to do the same here. The Patriots offense isn’t good either, scoring 13 and 14 in games not played vs. the Dolphins bad defense. Under 44.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 44.5) at New York Giants

I sat there Sunday night at MetLife thinking I could see football any worse than what the Dolphins and Gators have put out. Then, I watched the Giants play some sort of offense against the Chiefs that I didn’t quite understand. It’s not good in Daboll-land when they are chanting for Jaxson Dart all game. Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn’t, but the Giants aren’t getting to 20 points against this Chargers defense that is in the top 10 in most statistical categories. The Chargers are allowing 16.7 points per game and that’s vs. the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos. The Giants offense is much worse. Giants team total under 19.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 44.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know I am asking for it here considering the Eagles may never lose another game every again. However, if there is one team that can beat them, it’s this one. Dating back to the Wild Card loss after the 2023 season, the Eagles are 21-4 in their last 25 games with 2 of those losses coming to the Bucs. That’s right, Philly is 21-2 against the rest of the NFL and 0-2 vs. the Bucs over the last 25 games. Late last season, when looking at potential playoff matchups, my neighbor, a big Eagles fan, said to me “Anyone but Tampa, please”.

Just saying. Sometimes you live on the edge. Bucs +2.5 and buy to 3.

Others that I am eyeing for now

On the college side, until James Franklin proves me wrong, I will keep betting against the Nittany Lions in big games, especially if getting points. Oregon. Franklin is 4-20 vs. top-10 (1-14 vs. top 5, but Oregon is 6th). Oregon may very well be one of the top team’s in the country as they were last year when they won the Big Ten championship game over Penn State. Will be on the Ducks +3.5. Quack Quack.

Let’s not forget the MLB season, which enters it’s final week before the postseason.

Milwaukee Brewers (Freddy Peralta, +110) at San Diego Padres (Nick Pivetta, -130), 7

Both of these teams are pretty settled into where they will finish the regular season, but both still value this result and I expect their decision-making to reflect as much.

The Padres are coming off of a series in which none of their relievers threw 20 pitches in an outing, thus leaving this bullpen well rested by late September standards (they had last Monday off and have this Thursday off). Over the past month, Pivetta is up over 16 pitches per innings and it's hard to pencil him in for an overly efficient outing tonight against the most disciplined offense over that stretch (27% chase rate).

Pivetta is under a strikeout per inning since the All-Star Break and if the pitches pile up, under six innings would be my projection, so sign me up for under six punchouts.

He's facing arguably the hottest pitcher in the sport in Peralta, a pitcher who hasn't allowed more than a single earned run in seven of his past eight starts. His profile isn't flawless, but I think he offers what Pivetta doesn't: the ability to be efficient. His first strike rate has been better than his current season average in six of his past seven and if he's getting ahead of the Padres, he'll be in position to extend his streak of dominance (SDP: fifth highest chase rate this season).

I think the wrong team is favored in this game and that means you can play this in a variety of ways. If you just want the Brewers moneyline (+110), I'm fine with it. Want to get the 0.5 runs through five innings (-145) for the road team? No issue. Want to chase some upside with picking Peralta to earn the W? I like it.

I'm walking in the middle of those options. I've got a mini-SGP plugged in: Pivetta under 5.5 strikeouts with the Brewers to win (+206).

How Did We Do?

We ended slightly up on the Week, meaning we have broken even or profited in all three weeks since the NFL season started. Week 1 CFB was our only losing week.

NFL

CFB

How Did the Weekend Go in Sports Betting

We will leave it here:

Teasers Are a Tease, Unless …

If I never bet a teaser, I’d be perfectly happy. They are called teasers for a reason. However, there is statistically one type of teaser that you can profit from.

Dating back decades to Blackjack author Stanford Wong, the Wong teaser still shows a profit, depending on your book’s rules.

If your book offers two-team teasers at -120 and IF you can bet two teams through two key numbers, it’s profitable in the long run.

Example: Teasing an 8.5, 7.5 down to 2.5, 1.5 (through the key numbers, seven and three) or from 1.5, 2.5 to 7.5, 8.5. Do that with two teams at -120, and you can profit. Outside of that, it’s a waste of money.

This section is reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearmanPFN on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.

On man, this weekend was not for the people with heart problems.

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