Upsets Rule Week 9 NFL; Picks and SGP for MNF

Happy Monday Betting family! It’s Monday at the end of Week 9 (already) of the NFL and Week 10 of the CFB season. We enter MNF 8-1 for the week in props and hope to cash a side bet as well.

We have MNF, 9 NBA games, 4 NHL games and, btw, college basketball tips off tonight. We will dive into that in the coming weeks.

A lot of our winning props were in the premium section of Friday’s newsletter. Upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.

Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had ESPN Radio and SportsGrid betting analyst Mark Zinno on, where he dug into CFB and NFL action.

Fox Sports and former ESPN GameDay’s Chris Fallica will be on the podcast this week.

Let’s get into it as we have a Monday night football game to finish Week 9, early look at Week 10 and NBA and NHL action tonight.

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NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 16-17-1
- Sides: 7-8-1
- Totals: 9-9
Main Props (including primetime games): 56-27 (8-1 in Week 9 entering MNF)
Total: 72-44-1

We gave this one out in our Early Look column last Monday at -2.5. It’s now up to 3 and 3.5 in some places, showing that getting on it early matters. Here were my notes from last week’s column.

Surprisingly, I am on a side in the primetime game with Dallas -2.5.

I also like some props in this game, because we love to prop it like it’s hot in primetime.

Jacoby Brissett over 248.5 passing yards (FanDuel)

Plenty of more on this game, including our SGP below

We are going to use both our plays from above at alt line and add two others we like and use the Monday night promos to boost it back.

DK has a 25% boost on 2 legs or more (+300 min) and FD has 30% live boost.

Baseball is over, so NBA betting will take center stage during the week as NCAA basketball gets going.

There's a weird rest angle to play the other side of this, but I'm of the belief that the impact of travel is something that impacts betting sides in an exponential way and we are still at the beginning of the season.

The Pistons are coming back from Mexico City (Saturday game) and that could make for a unique spot, but I'm going to assume that we get the standard version of them and that version is one I want to back.

This season, the player to lead the opponent in scoring against the Pistons has, in large, needed to light it up from distance. Across their six games, the top point scorer on the other side has knocked down 21-of-38 triples (55.3%), an unsustainably high rate, but a trend that speaks to a defense that is built from the inside out.

That's not great news for a lifetime 31.3% three-point shooter in Ja Morant who has misfired on 27 of his 32 attempts this season. He'll be rested after serving his one-game suspension, but asking him to put up numbers in bulk against Detroit is not something I'm comfortable with.

The explosive guard has led the Grizz in scoring in only half of his games as it is and with his free throw rate steadily declining since his last All Star season in 2023, I worry that he struggles to capitalize on the Pistons primary flaw of sending their opponents to the stripe too often.

Cedric Coward could keep shooting the lights out and maybe we get one of those Jaren Jackson Jr. games that seem to happen a few times a month, but those profile as outliers. If the Pistons have success at cutting off the head of the snake like I think they can in this spot, they are sitting pretty.

I've got Morant's point total tied in a strong way to Memphis' result tonight and with me electing to fade the superstar, that means I'm pairing Morant’s under 23.5 points with a Pistons outright win at +170 odds tonight.

We are in a good mood on this Monday morning, so we are giving out more than one NBA play today.

From Kevin Rogers

Edmonton has a huge game at Dallas in a Western Conference Final rematch on Tuesday night. The Oilers travel to St. Louis tonight to face the struggling Blues, who have dropped seven straight games.

This is actually a good spot to back the Blues in the first period. St. Louis has scored the first goal in four of the last five games, although the Blues are 1-1-3 in the first period in this span.

The Oilers have struggled in the first period this season, leading just twice in 13 games. In seven road games, Edmonton has led through 20 minutes once in seven tries.

St. Louis hasn't led at home after the first period in seven tries this season, but the Blues should be motivated to end their losing streak against the two-time Western Conference champions.

Let's back the Blues in the first period at a short plus price (Blues 1p +108 at FD)

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

We also gave out tonight’s Dallas pick last Monday at -2.5 and it’s up to 3 and 3.5 right now.

What we like/monitoring today

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Niners just played a 34-24 game vs. the Giants, so why am I playing the under? Well, it was the only Niners game this season that went into the 50s. The Rams? They’ve played two, in Weeks 2 and 3. These two teams played to 49 back in September, but that took 15 points in the 4th quarter and overtime.

In the last three games, the Rams have allowed a total of 20 points and now have the league’s 2nd-best scoring defense, allowing 15.9 points per game. The Niners are 9th at 20.9, meaning the teams combined have allowed 36.8 points per game, well below the 49.5. This will come down, so I am taking it today.

Detroit Lions (-7.5, 50.5) at Washington Commanders

You won’t see me take many overs during the season, but this is one I am jumping on at 50.5. The Washington defense has turned ugly, allowing 400+ yards in the last three games and 33.8 points per game the last four games. Now, the Lions and their top-3 scoring offense (29.9 PPG) come to town.

Will they be able to move the ball with Mariota at QB? They scored 27-27-7 in his three starts, with the seven being against the Chiefs.

Three of the last four Commanders games and five of nine this season have hit this number and four of the Lions eight games have hit this number. Not apples to apples, but when we last saw these two teams meet in the Divisional Round last year, they combined for 76 points and over 1000 yards.
Over 50.5 points

Other games I am considering and may get to by Tuesday night’s VSiN hit:

How Did We Do?

We have one more game and one more prop tonight, but had a nice winning weekend in the NFL. Not so much in CFB, which has been the trend this season.

We are currently 8-1 in props for the week, going 7-1 yesterday and hitting Waddle on TNF. We are 0-2 in our side/total bets and on Dallas tonight.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates, MLB postseason and NHL underway.

NFL

CFB

MLB/NHL: Won on both plays here, hitting the Gausman outs in Game 6 and the first period Ducks play. Congrats to Kyle Soppe and Kevin Rogers.

NBA: lost our one NBA play on Grizzles over Lakers.

Filter Through the Noise

Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.

There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.

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