Happy Monday Betting family! Sneakily, this is one of my favorite weeks of the year. You have small school conference tourneys ending, major conference tourneys beginning, one of the top-5 golf events of the year, and full slates of NBA and NHL. And you can feel spring around the corner with us moving those clocks forward over the weekend.
We are all about accountability with Betting with Bearman, so when we take it on the chin, we don’t run from it, just like we promote our wins. We did not have a good Friday at all, but responded with back-to-back great live golf days on Saturday and Sunday. Remember to follow me on Twitter/X for all bets that are not in the newsletter. a 5-0-1 golf weekend saved us. We also had multiple players on the Pacers trend we have been monitoring.
While today, like all Monday’s are FREE, make sure to upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks in the fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course. All the picks you see above were in that premium part.
Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had FanDuel Betting analyst Minty Bets on, to break down UFC 326. This week, VSiN’s Tim Murray joins to hit Conference Tournament week and get you prepared for Selection Sunday.
I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman. We have my former hometown event this week in the Honda Classic. I know it’s called Cognizant Classic now, but it’s Honda Classic to me.
We also have our affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays every newsletter and are 2-0 so far! We have a free play below.
Let’s get you some winning bets to cash.
NBA on the Court
New York Knicks (-2.5, 220.5) at Los Angeles Clippers.
If you like exploiting recent trends for nationally televised games, man do we have the spot for you!
The Knicks and Clips do battle in Los Angeles tonight on the back-end of the Peacock double header. New York struggled in this city yesterday, falling to the Lakers 110-97 (they shot 8-of-34 from 3 and got a total of 8 points from Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges across 49 minutes), while the Clippers returned home from a four games in four cities trip that spanned six days before their Sunday rest day.
They've got them right where they want them.
The Knicks are a strong 8-5 ATS this season when having the rest disadvantage while Los Angeles checks in at a woeful 5-10 ATS when being the team with more time to prepare. Of course, some of those Los Angeles figures came early in the season when this team was stuck in the mud, but the point remains that they've been overindexed when "fresh" while the Knicks, a team that is generally overpriced due to the popularity of their market, is just that when playing on tired legs.
We know the Knicks to be one of the better rebounding teams in the league (February 21 was the last time they were out-rebounded in a game) and that could be what ultimately gets this ticket to the window as the Clippers are 15-21 outright when losing the battle on the glass (16-11 otherwise).
Knicks ML (-125)
Don’t go away! We have some more NBA plays, CBB Conference Tournament thoughts, and much more
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More NBA on the Court
Karl-Anthony Towns over 12.5 rebounds
I love this prop for multiple reasons. For one, KAT is on a recent tear, averaging 14.2 rpg over his last 5 games.
He’s hit over 11.5 in six straight and over 12.5 in 5 of 6, getting 12 in the one he missed.
78.7% double-digit rebound rate (48 of 61 games)
Playing 30.3 MPG, getting plenty of opportunities
The other factor to consider, and in today’s NBA, this is an every night factor, it’s the back end of back-to-back, which means Mitchell Robinson likely doesn’t play.
KAT's rebounding numbers explode when Mitchell Robinson doesn't play.
The Difference: +3.2 Rebounds Per Game Without Robinson
81.3% hit rate on O11.5 (13 of 16 games)
62.5% hit rate on O12.5 (10 of 16 games)
Averages 14.3 RPG (+3.2 more than with Robinson)
More offensive boards: 4.1 OREB vs 2.7 with Robinson (+1.4)
More defensive boards: 10.1 DREB vs 8.4 with Robinson (+1.7)
Monster game potential: 6 games of 15+ rebounds in just 16 games (37.5%)
Higher ceiling: 22 rebounds (season high) came without Robinson
Champ Week
It’s that week special week every year where NCAA tourney tickets are punched. We have a bunch of strong teams (Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, UConn) that could very well make the conference tourneys moot, but there is some value out there. Let’s take a look.
As I noted, it’s very tough to pick against any of the horses in their respective title games. But if I were to pick elsewhere, here is what I would consider:
Kansas +1000 to win Big 12: It’s been real simple for KU.. It’s all about Peterson. If he’s there an engaged, we know they can beat anyone.
They avoid Arizona and Iowa State (other side of bracket) until finals, two teams that beat them by 18+
Potential semifinal against Houston, who they already handled once this year
+1000 is a huge price considering Arizona is +100 and Houston is Houston is +200
St. John’s +260 to win Big East: Yes, they lost by a million to UConn two weeks ago, but they also beat them earlier this season. The UConn loss was only one dating back to Jan. 3. You betting against Pitino in conference tourney? Value is there with UConn getting most bets.
World Baseball Classic
Mexico (+370) vs. United States (-525), Total: 11.5
I tried the under 14 in the first game and it was 7-1 middle of the 7th and we were feeling good.
The under hit for the USA in game two, a 9-1 win over Great Britian.
We are going back to it because Team USA is putting up their best pitcher tonight in Paul Skenes, followed by a strong bullpen.
On the other side, Mexico’s Manny Barreda won’t wow you and likely will be chased early, but they have a strong bullpen with 3 MLB closes in Vodnik, Garcia, and Munoz).
The USA offense has not been overwhelming as we thought they’d be. Sure they’ve scored 24 runs in two games, but remember, 7 of those were in a pointless 9th inning vs. Brazil and 5 of the 9 vs. GB were in one inning.
I do expect some offense, but I think USA wins this one more like 7-1.
If you are worried about bullpen nonsense, as we saw vs. Brazil, I am not opposed to under 6.5 for first 5 innings either. Only issue there… I like Mexico’s pen more than the starter.
Under 11.5
Recapping the Weekend
How Did We Do?
Well, our Friday newsletter did not do well, as noted in the intro to today’s newsletter. We took it on the chin and turned the page, as our Saturday and Sunday action was fantastic.
Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and how we did overall.
NBA
Lost our Knicks/Nuggets under and LeMelo Ball prop, but hit our Pacers over, both on Friday and again on Sunday (reminder went out on Twitter/X), so 2-2 in NBA.
MCBB
After going 3-0 on Thursday with the Missouri Valley unders trend, we went all in on Friday, betting the 4 games under. Well, they went 0-4, so that was a bummer. Anything that could go wrong there, did. 1 seed giving up 100 to 8 seed, a game going to double OT that was way under. You get the point. We lost.
Even tried our go-to Florida 2H bet and that was a rare loss.
GOLF
Our pre-tourney bets took a hit when Jake Knapp WD’d just before the even (we got money back), but the crusher was Saturday morning, when Rory decided not to play the weekend, even though he was T-9. There went our best outright and a top-10 bet.
We did hit Straka top-20 and had a shot at the live one going into Sunday.
We also hit our lone 72-hole H2H from the newsletter, hitting Morikawa over Cantlay as PC missed the cut (we are now 6-6-1 in these this season)
We jumped into the round H2Hs on Twitter on Saturday, going 3-0 with our plays, including a +500 parlay.
We repeated it on Sunday, but went 2-0-1, with the parlay going down to 2 legs. Still a good 3 unit day.
WBC
Took a stab at USA/Brazil under 15 and it was 7-1 at the stretch. Also 8-5 going into the 9th. That’s how Friday went overall.
UFC
We had Minty Bets on the Betting with Bearman podcast, giving out plays on all 5 fights on the main card. She went 3-2.
BETR Plays
Went 1-2 in golf plays for our new partners at BETR (10-8 on the golf season).
If not in the newsletter, make sure to catch them on Twitter/X
Betting Tip of the Week
Filter Through the Noise
Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.
There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run.
Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action
The PLAYERS Championship PGA Tour preview
VSiN’s Tim Murray on Betting with Bearman
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