Wemby Goes to Hollywood; Raiders-Broncos Kickoff Week 10's NFL Action

Happy Wednesday to all that celebrate the middle of the week. The first College Football Playoff Rankings are out and the temps have dropped, which means we are halfway through football season. Plenty of NBA and College Hoops tonight, as well as NHL.

We also like to get ahead on Betting with Bearman, so we have our Thursday Night Football card, featuring a pick off Raiders-Broncos, as well as our Same Game Parlay, props and plays for the book promos that are offered.

We also take a look at our Futures portfolio and line moves as we do every Wednesday.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we will have Chris “The Bear” Fallica from Fox Sports, and formerly ESPN’s College GameDay, on this afternoon.

And upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Let’s get to it!

We have 11 NBA games tonight, which means 22 different teams of players to bet on. We are headed to the city of the World Series champions for tonight’s play.

The Spurs come into this game rested after their first defeat of the season on Sunday (this is only their third game in a nine-day stretch as part of a weird scheduling quirk) to face the 18th-ranked defense in the league that allows the ninth highest FG% within five-feet of the bucket.

Where do you think I'm going with this?

The Lakers have allowed a 30+ point scorer in two straight games and in six of eight this season. They allow the ninth most shots in the restricted area and the 11th most from behind the 3-point line: essentially, they are an analytical dream to oppose.

Analytics have a hard time quantifying the beast that is Victor Wembanyama, but he's been dominant. In October, he had 10 FGM or 10 FTM in all five games and while the first game this month wasn't competitive against the Suns of all teams (12-point loss in a game they trailed by 31), I don't think there's any question when it comes to what he brings to the table.

It's still early in the season, but his drive count is up from 4.6 per game last season to 8.3. We know he can finish at the rim and is comfortable stretching the defense from 30 feet ... if he's attacking off the bounce nearly twice as often as a year ago, we won't be getting plus-money on him to score 30 points much longer.

Different books take different amount of action on certain stars, so make sure to price shop whenever you take an over for a star. Wemby to reach 30 points ranges from +120 to +140 across the industry and while I'd be comfortable taking it at any of those numbers, finding the best is obviously the play given the fluid nature of a popular market like this. (Wemby 30+ points is +122 at FD, +130 at DK)

Stick around for our Thursday Night Football play and SGP below