Happy Friday, Happy Omaha, and Happy NBA Finals. It’s going to be a great couple of days in sports as we have the potential to see the NBA and NHL Champions crowned and we begin one of my favorite events in Omaha. And we have the USA playing tonight in the World Cup.
All is covered below, with a good World Cup preview from Chris Wassel. And a complete College World Series bracket breakdown from me. If you like +18 units, you will like that.
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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. We had The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer on this week, talking Knicks-Spurs and NFC East Futures. You don’t want to miss that!
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College World Series Begins
If you’ve been following us all season long, we’ve had a great College Baseball betting season. While not all have been in the newsletter due to timing and only 3x a week, we are +18.61 units on the season. I will be creating a discord shortly to make sure the premium members get all picks moving forward for all sports.
For today, giving out pick off the first game here. Analysis on the entire field and Game 2 are below.
West Virginia -1.5 (-140) over Troy
We were all over the WVU run line last week over an undermanned Cal Poly team, and the Mountaineers rewarded us with two blowout wins. Now, Troy is better than Cal Poly, but their Q1 record of 10-13 says not by much. And most of those Q1 wins were over the last 2 weekends. Chansen Cole takes the mound today. Cole and his teammate Maxx Yehl get most of the attention for the 1-2 punch, but West Virginia's overall team ERA is 3.79, 7th in the country and best in the field. They also have the 23rd-best defense in terms of fielding percentage behind them.
Cole has been fantastic all season and up another gear in the postseason. In two starts and one relief appearance (to close out the regional), Cole has pitched 14.2 innings, allowing 3 runs, with 23 K and 2 BB. Hello. Troy's lineup is better than Cal Poly, as they showed vs. Miami, Florida, and Little Rock, but I still love West Virginia here. Troy is pitching Benjamin Stubbs, who has had a good year, but also has given up 2+ runs in 9 straight starts, and 3+ in 7 of those.
Laying the -1.5 at -140 to start this off. I have seen some -2.5 for plus money out there if you want to get different value. I am playing the -1.5 because Troy has shown they have HR power and one swing can screw things up
NBA Finals Game 5 - Knicks Go For the Title - Saturday
Game 5: New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 216.5)
Well that was something on Wednesday night, huh? Spurs wrestle control of series away from the Knicks to even series at 2 each and head home… oh wait, no, blow a 29-point lead and now down 3-1 and lose in the worst way possible. Eesh.
But you know what they did do correctly? Win the first quarter for the sixth straight game. Yep. Why worry about blown 29-point leads when you can cash your bet before dinner is over.
Spurs first quarter ML (-166)
You didn’t think we’d move away from this did you? It’s now 4-0 in the finals, regardless of which team wins the game. We cash a bet 12 minutes in and smile the rest of the night.
Spurs are the 2nd highest scoring first qtr team at 31.4, two full points better than Knicks. While the Knicks have dominated the 2nd quarter (should watch that line as well), it’s been San Antonio early every night and it hasn’t been close.
The tightest first quarter we have seen is 7 points. They have outscored the Knicks by 7, 9, 11, and 18. And in that order, Keeps growing.
Spurs are 12-2-2 winning the first period since dropping game 1 to the Timberwolves in the conference semis, including going into Oklahoma City in Game 7, as well as all four games in the Finals.
Wemby plays 11 minutes on average in the first qtr before resting, which gives Spurs the advantage on most nights.
We also have the Zig Zag in play tonight. Team off a loss, favored in Q1 is 22-9-1 in next game 1st qtr. Obviously didnt work in Game 4 cause the Spurs 1st qtr power is better than the Zig Zag :)
The price is back to a large number due to it being at home, so if you want to lay the -2.5, I am ok with that as well, but we also don’t know how the Spurs will react to what happened in Game 4.
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