Will the Super Bowl 60 Line Move? The "Greatest Show on Grass" Starts Thursday in Phoenix

Happy Wednesday betting friends. Four days until the final football game of season. We have plenty of coverage to keep you busy, from trends to props and an entire podcast this afternoon dedicated to Super Bowl LX.

We are excited to announce an affiliate deal with our new friends at Betr. Through our partnership, you can sign up now and get $10 free and then a 50% deposit match up to $200 by using the Betting with Bearman sign up link, right here. We are also going to be sending out Betr plays in coming days in the newsletter, so check back for those. We start today with a golf one, which we are giving out free below.

While we give our NBA play out for free tonight in the newsletter, our full Waste Management card, updated Super Bowl content and NHL plays are all worth an upgrade at the current $99/year plan as you don’t want to miss weekly NFL and CFB week picks this fall. One $99 price (or $9.99/month) will get you every single newsletter unlocked, all our trends and picks and access to me of course.

Make sure you listen to the Betting with Bearman podcast this week as we had Geoff Fienberg from Mayo Media Network on to discuss Super Bowl LX. This week, we bring back The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer for some more Super Bowl LX talk and NBA trade content.

We have 7 NBA games, 10 NHL games and an entire golf event to hit. I am also going to help you in your golf pools with One and Done picks AND access to some awesome golf tools that you can use to help with your pool. Head over to PoolGenius and get Discounts courtesy of Betting with Bearman.

Today, we are going to give a free one out to start, so here is the Betr play today. We are rolling with two players for Thursday. This is for Round 1. Make sure to check me out on Twitter/X for more daily Betr plays.

Let’s get to the rest!

The headlines have been the big trades in the NBA over the last 36 hours, which we will have about on the Betting with Bearman podcast this afternoon, but we also have a marquee, national TV matchup between two of the best teams in the NBA and two of the best young stars in the NBA.

This could be a preview of a series we see this summer with a lot more on the line and it’s a treat whenever we get a matchup like that in February. The schedule gods have actually given this to us four times already this season, including an unscheduled one in Las Vegas for the NBA Cup semis.

At one point, the defending champion Thunder were 24-1, tied for the best start in NBA history, averaging 123.6 PPG. Then a funny thing happened. They faced the Spurs in the NBA Cup semis. San Antonio shocked the Thunder in Las Vegas, winning 111-109, denying the Thunder a chance at the NBA Cup title. Aberration? Not quite. A week later, the two teams played a home-and-home, with the Spurs winning both, first by 20 at home and then by 15 at OKC.

So you assume the play here is the Spurs as a home dog at home? While, I do not oppose that play, that’s not where I am going as the Thunder did earn a 21-point when in the team’s fourth meeting last month.

No, where I am headed is the under market. As I wrote about in this Prize Picks piece, the Spurs have played more unders than any team in the NBA, with 32 of their 50 games going under the total. But this is not just a play on a season trend. The last seven, 15 of the last 16, and 21 of the previous 24 Spurs games have gone under. What was the first game of that stretch? Yep, the NBA Cup semifinal win against OKC.

The Spurs are led by their defense, which is third in the league in defensive rating (111.2), fourth in opponents’ FG pct (45.6), and fourth in rebounds (46.1). And the numbers are even stronger starting with the under run. The ironic part? The Thunder defense has been just as good since mid December, matching the Spurs in every category mentioned above. Another stat that stood out to me was: these two teams are 1-2 in the league in limiting fast-break points. They simply don’t allow you to run. That slows the game down, limits the possessions and leads to unders.

And the star players? Both SGA and Wemby averaging below their season totals across the board when they play each other.

Under 222.5 points

Stick around for our full Farmers Insurance PGA Tour card, NHL pick, and updated Super Bowl content below