Wimbledon Gets Underway; Is There Value to Be Had?

We are in the last day of June, which means lots of baseball, soccer tournaments, golf and dreaming about being less than 10 Sundays away from NFL action. But first, we have plenty of stuff still to be on this summer.

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Welcome to the dog days of summer. Before we get into the MLB pick of the day, let me start by giving a shoutout to the hottest team in baseball, the young Miami Marlins. Winners of 7 straight and 9 straight on the road. Not often they do something like this, so it’s worth a mention. No, I’m not taking them at 500-1. Just wanted to be the only newsletter in America mentioning them. At some point, we will fade them :).

On to today’s action.

Baltimore Orioles (-110, Trevor Rogers) at Texas Rangers (-103, Patrick Corbin)

It's not all that common to get to fade Patrick Corbin without much juice attached to it, so why not make the most of it? This is a rematch (same starting pitchers) of last Monday, just at a different ballpark.

In that first meeting, things went about as you'd expect. Corbin was sharp early (retired the first eight, lowering his first trip through batting average against this season to .213) before giving up loud contact left and right. After the quick start, Corbin allowed the next 16 batters to rack up nine hits and five runs.

Ball game.

His launch angle allowed has spiked this season (49.5% higher than his career average) and there are matchups where that's not a major concern ... this isn't one of them. He's gotten away with it against the White Sox, Athletics, and Tigers this season, all of whom are bottom-10 offenses in terms of Hard%, but the O's rank sixth this month and fourth for the season in that metric.

Trevor Rogers has been very good across his 16.2 innings this season, but that's too small a sample to read too much into it. It can sometimes be a process before getting to Corbin and with the Baltimore bullpen in a good spot rest wise (no piece of it enters tonight having thrown in consecutive days courtesy of a pair of lopsided games over the weekend), I'm not getting cute here -- give me the Birds moneyline (-110).

Was able to jump on this at -108 last night for a unit and will be looking to reinvest at plus-money should Corbin get out of the first frame unharmed. 

Sometimes you bet on teams and sometimes you bet against teams. This would qualify as the latter for me, as Corbin hasn't finished a season with a sub-4.66 ERA since Kevin Durant left Golden State.

You only get four chances a year to bet Grand Slam tennis and the next two weeks presents one of those spots. The French Open showed us a budding new tennis rivalry between the top two players in the world in Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. It is no surprise to see them 1-2 on the Gentlemen’s odds board with Alcaraz (+120) the favorite and Sinner (+200) next.

Men’s Odds

Carlos Alcaraz (+120)
Jannik Sinner (+200)
Novak Djokovic (+650)
Jack Draper (+1800)
Alexander Zverev (+2500)
Alexander Bublik (+4000)
Taylor Fritz (+5000)

I fault no one for going with the 2-time defending champion in Alcaraz, but you also aren’t getting much value at +120. He also doesn’t have to face Sinner or Djokovic until the finals, so the bracket is open.

I would go Alcaraz over Sinner if choosing between the two for multiple reasons. I mentioned Alcaraz won the last two titles, but he also rallied to beat Sinner in Paris and then there’s the harder side of bracket for Sinner.

But if you are looking for value, it’s hard to not like the +650 on the 7-time Wimbledon and 24-time Grand Slam winner Djokovic. He’s lost in the finals to Carlos each of the last two years, so his best bet is to hope for an upset on the other side of the bracket. That said, +650 is as high as you will see Djokovic, who has dominated in this event for the last two decades.

We could play the sleeper game, but with those three on the board, almost pointless.

On the Women’s side, instead of a couple of short favorites, we have one in Aryna Sabalenka (+240), but unlike the men, a bunch of even contenders right behind her.

Women’s Odds

Aryna Sabalenka (+240)
Elena Rybakina (+550)
Coco Gauff (+800)
Iga Swiatek (+900)
Mirra Andreeva (+1600)
Madison Keys (+1600)
Marketa Vondrousova (+1800)
Jessica Pegula (+2200)

Yes, Sabalenka is the top player in the world with a big gap to No. 2 but she also hasn’t won a major on a surface that’s not hardcourt. She will go deep as she has made semis or better in nine of her last 10 Grand Slam events, but I’d rather play someone with longer odds, who plays exceptional on grass.

That leads me to Rybakina (+550), who won here in 2022 and, if healthy, could be the favorite. For longer odds, I’d play Vondrousova at 18-1 as she won here in 2023 and will be seeking revenge after a first round exit last season.

Teasers Are a Tease, Unless …

If I never bet a teaser, I’d be perfectly happy. They are called teasers for a reason. However, there is statistically one type of teaser that you can profit from.

Dating back decades to Blackjack author Stanford Wong, the Wong teaser still shows a profit, depending on your book’s rules.

If your book offers two-team teasers at -120 and IF you can bet two teams through two key numbers, it’s profitable in the long run.

Example: Teasing an 8.5, 7.5 down to 2.5, 1.5 (through the key numbers, seven and three) or from 1.5, 2.5 to 7.5, 8.5. Do that with two teams at -120, and you can profit. Outside of that, it’s a waste of money.

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