Favorites Win Early Sunday, Underdogs Win Late; 2 MNF Games and a Game 7

Happy Monday Betting family! It’s Monday at the end of Week 7 of the NFL and Week 8 of the CFB season. We have two Monday night games tonight, along with the ALCS Game 7. What’s there not to like?

Well, I guess if you were betting Mike McDaniel to not have a job this morning, you are still losing that bet. Go figure.

But let’s get you some winning bets to cash.

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Also make sure you listen to the weekly Betting with Bearman podcast. Last week, we had Vegas Insider’s Patrick Everson on, where he dug into where all the action was in each NFL game.

FanDuel’s Austin Swain, who handles betting research for FanDuel Sportsbook, will be our guest this week.

Let’s get into it as we have two Monday night football games, early look at Week 2 and much more, including the ALCS Game 7!

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NFL Main Side/Total Plays (including primetime games): 13-14-1
- Sides: 5-6-1
- Totals: 8-8
Main Props (including primetime games): 42-20 (4-3 entering MNF)
Total: 55-34-1

I’ve been waiting for this game all week. Two good, exciting teams on MNF. I think this is too many points to lay against a Bucs team that has played in five one-score game already this season.

And as much as we salivate over going under a 53.5, these two teams have explosive offenses that I could easily see going over the listed 53.5. So my lean is Bucs +6, which I will play at over 7 in a SGP, but let’s head to the prop market first!

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 Passing TDs (-150 at DraftKings) - Monday night

Plenty of more on this game and on the second Monday night game below

David Montgomery under 44.5 rush yards (DraftKings) - Monday night

I actually have a side to play in this one.

We were looking at this one last Monday in our Early Look when it was 3.5 but now we got it at 3. Outside of Indy, and maybe Tampa, Seattle has been the surprise team this year - 4-2 with wins at Pitt and at Jacksonville and losses by one score to SF and TB, both game they could've won.

Seattle is averaging 6.29 yards per play, tops in the NFL., with the 4th best passing offense and scoring offense (27.7 PPG). Seattle also has 2nd-best rush defense (79 yards per game).

I wasn't in love with Houston entering the season and faded them in the win total market that we gave out in our summer futures newsletter. The two wins were vs. an awful Tennessee team and an injury-ravaged Ravens team. Yes, the 3 losses are by 13 total points to three good teams, but the offense has not been impressive outside the Ravens game Seattle and lay the 3. PFF has their pass block unit ranked 23rd, leading to sacks and rushed throws by C.J. Stroud.

The know underdogs are cashing like crazy in primetime games, but we like the home favorite here.
Seahawks -3

We are simply going to use our picks from above and move them to some alt lines and boost it back with DraftKings’s 30% SGPx boost. The one issue is they don’t let you take alt-unders in SGPs, so we will need to pivot from the David Montgomery under into something else.

Other props I like that I may play in other SGPs include: Goff 2+ TDs (-190), Gibbs over 24.5 receiving yards

ALCS Game 7: Seattle Mariners (+104, Kirby) at Toronto Blue Jays (-126, Bieber), Total: 7.5

Game 7. One game for a trip to the World Series. Doesn’t get any better than this. Blue Jays haven’t been to the Fall Classic since 1993. The Mariners have never been.

We have two outstanding pitchers on the mound and we have two bullpens that will be at the ready should there be in any trouble.

I am going to keep this simple. Five of the last six and eight of the 11 Game 7s didn’t go over 7 runs. Batters are tight. Bullpens are ready. Everyone is on edge. I see this following the same low-scoring script. Who wins? Slight edge to the Mariners, but I am playing under the total.

Under 7.5

Minnesota Wild (+114) at New York Rangers (-135), Total 5.5

New York's offense has been dismal through the first two weeks of the season, especially in the opening period.

The Rangers have not scored a first period goal at Madison Square Garden in three games, while not leading through 20 minutes in four straight games.

The Wild have lost the first three games of their five-game road swing, as Minnesota seeks its first goal in the opening period on this trip. Also, the Wild have allowed three goals in the first 20 minutes in four road games.

The Rangers are off a huge victory at Montreal on Saturday night, but this looks like a letdown early on, especially against a Wild team trying to get on track.

Wild 1P (+100) at Rangers

In this section, we like to take a first look at the next week’s action and hope to jump on some games before the line moves. These are not official plays unless noted that I took it today. It’s good to get ahead of the market and look for edges.

A perfect example: In NFL’s Week 1, we mentioned Broncos -7.5. If you took it Monday, it was a win. If you waited unless Sunday, when it moved to -8.5, you lost. In Friday’s column, it was still -8, so that was a push.

We aren’t there yet on a lot of games since there are still four teams playing tonight, so make sure to read Wednesday’s edition, which will have more Early Look.

What we like/monitoring today

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5, 46.5)

Despite having one of the worst defenses in football (26th in yards, 32nd rush yards, 32nd DVOA, 29th in points), the Dolphins are also the only team in the NFL to be 6-1 to the under.

How does this make sense, you ask? Well, they are also 29th in time of possession. Combine that with the 32nd against the run and the picture is this: they can’t get off the field and allow long, run-controlled drives all game long. Take Week 1 vs Indy. The Colts did not punt once all game and the game still went under the total. Oh, and the offense can’t move the ball either. But when they do, it’s short, quick passes or runs. Miami averages 5.15 yards per play, 21st in the NFL.

The combination of not being able to stop the run, not being able to move the ball and continuously extending opponents drives with penalties leads to unders. They even gave Cleveland 14 free points off Tua Interceptions and the game stayed under 40.

As far as Atlanta, 4th-best rushing team, 4th-beat Time of Possession team and 28th in scoring (18.3 PPG), 29th in red zone offense. Again, long drives (we saw a 10-min one last night vs. Niners), using the run and poor execution in the red zone.. that is also a good under sign.

Miami may never get off the field vs. Bijan Robinson and this one looks like a nice 24-10 Atlanta win.
Under 46.5

Green Bay Packers (-3, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Rodgers return narrative is cute and all, but it doesn’t mean they will win. The Packers are the much better team here and only laying 3 on the road. The Steelers finally showed they were not the 4-1 team their record showed in the loss to Cincinnati last Thursday night. It took a herculean effort from Rodgers to even keep them in that game.

The Packers have not looked great since their 2-0 start over the Lions and Commanders, but they are still winning when it matters. Other than the 13-10 loss, Green Bay is getting it done home or road. Yes, they tied Dallas 40-40 on the road, but they also are better than they have played. The offense and defense are both top-10 in DVOA.

The Steelers, despite their record, are struggling on both sides of the ball, with their offense 25th in total yards and defense 28th in total yards and 31st in passing yards allowed. Pittsburgh may very well hold on and win the AFC North, but I do not think they beat the Packers here. Packers -3

Also looking (and waiting for MNF to finish) at:

How Did We Do?

The Seahawks and props tonight will decide if it’s a winning week or not.

Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) with full NFL and CFB slates, MLB postseason and NHL underway.

NFL

CFB

MLB/NHL: Lost both ALCS Game 5 pick and NHL 1st period under play

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